Finally! Brandon McCarthy records his first D’back victory, shutting out the Marlins 1-0. Image: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

On the first pitch of the game, Parra sent a ball over the right field fence for his fourth home run of the season.  It was all of the offense either team would muster as McCarthy went all the way on a three-hitter to defeat the Miami Marlins 1-0 in the second game of this three game set in Miami.  Parra helped make the lead stand up as in the bottom of the first inning as he nailed Derek Dietrich at the plate who was trying to score on a single by Chris Coghlan.  After the rocky inital frame, McCarthy settled down to retire the next twelve batters en route to his 99 pitch masterpiece.  McCarthy walked two batters and struck out five as he allowed only two batters to reach base over the next eight innings.  McCarthy has now tossed 17 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings going back to his May 7th outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers.  For the Fish, Tom Kohler was the hard-luck loser allowing only three hits, walking one and striking out seven, the only run being the Parra dinger.

The D’backs go for the sweep tomorrow as Wade Miley tries to get himself back on track against Miami’s Ricky Nolasco.  Game time is 1:10 EST, 10:10 out West.

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Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Eric Chavez greets teammate first baseman Paul Goldschmidt after Goldschmidt hit a two run homer during the first inning against the Miami Marlins. IMAGE: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

In case you’re not an Internet baseball junky like the present author, you may not be aware that a new tool was recently released that allows us to look ahead to the playoffs like never before. FanGraphs recently released a new standings forecast tool that projects the final standings of the season. To do this, the model takes lots of factors into account. For example, it uses a team’s current record, the allotment of playing time to players, the health of players, their projected production and much more to project the final standings. I won’t pretend to be able to explain every aspect of the model because I’m just barely functional at math, but you can read more about it here. Better yet, the standings are updated daily, so you should bookmark them now.

So why would I tell you about this? Well, it currently predicts the Diamondbacks to finish the season with 85 wins and 77 losses. That would be good for second in the division, behind the Giants who are projected to win 87 games and ahead of the Dodgers who, despite their terrible start, are projected to win 82. More importantly, it puts the Diamondbacks in the thick of the wild card race and not far behind the Giants for the division.

Along with the Giants, the Cardinals and the Braves are projected win their respective divisions. That leaves quality teams like the Reds, Pirates, and Nationals to compete with the Diamondbacks for a bid into the postseason. The Reds are projected to finish with 87 wins while the Pirates are currently projected for 86 wins. Both the Nationals and Diamondbacks are projected to win 85. Essentially, Arizona will have to outperform the two of these three teams (CIN, PIT, WAS) at the very least to reach the playoffs if Arizona doesn’t win the NL West outright.

If the team can win two extra games and reach 87 wins, they’ll likely make the playoffs and be in better position to capitalize on any slip by the Giants. These two extra victories, or “marginal wins,” are the most critical wins to the team’s season. Our playoff destiny likely hangs in the balance of the team being able to achieve a measly two more wins than their current projection.

Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers. IMAGE: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

This is where Kevin Towers, Kirk Gibson and the rest of the brain trust earns their cash. These two extra wins likely don’t reside on the current roster. Stabilizing the bullpen with the right acquisition(s) could net an extra win or two alone. A right-handed bench bat and the proper usage of the outfield when Adam Eaton returns could also make a (relatively) large difference. Of course, staying healthy will be critical, too. We should assume that the Reds, Pirates and Nationals will likely try to make similar moves in the trade market to ensure their success, so we’ll be competing with them in the trade market as well as in the standings.

Maximizing the current roster should be the number one priority, closely followed by shoring up any weaknesses through trades and/or call-ups. Standing pat likely won’t get it done unless some players significantly overachieve. Didi won’t hit .350 forever and Corbin won’t keep his ERA at 1.50 all season. Conversely, Montero will start to click eventually and McCarthy has nowhere to go but up. Regression will happen in Arizona, as it does all throughout baseball. With that said, the front office shouldn’t bank on small sample size performances when making decisions about what to do to improve the team down the line. KT and Company are smart enough to know this.

Now that we know where we stand over 25% of the way through the season, it’s important that the team makes the necessary adjustments to pick up an extra win or two. Hit 87 wins and you’re likely in. Finish with 83 and you’re likely out. 84 or 85 and anything can happen.  This is a quality team, but a little extra nudge from the front office and coaching staff will be required if we want to see the playoffs. They know this and I don’t think the 2013 Arizona Diamondbacks are a finished product at the moment.

The D’backs travel to Miami to face the listless Marlins, a team tied for the worst record in the majors at 11-30 and are on a five-game losing streak.

After a fire sale in the offseason, only Giancarlo Stanton remained a legitimate above-average regular. And he’s hurt.

The Marlins are dead last in the majors in runs, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. In their last game, against the Reds on May 16, the Marlins trotted out a lineup featuring Juan Pierre in the leadoff spot, Adeiny Hechavarria in the two hole, Derek Dietrich, and his six career games in the majors, in the third spot and Marcell Ozuna, and his 15 games in the majors, hitting clean up. It’s a very bad, no good, dirty, rotten lineup.

On the flip side, the Snakes are playing very well right now. Coming off a series win against the talented Braves, and winning seven of their last 10, the D’backs should get off to a good start on their six game road trip through Miami and Denver.

Game 1 (Friday): Trevor Cahill (2-4, 2.70 ERA) vs. Kevin Slowey (1-3, 2.55 ERA)

Slowey has been a bright spot for the Marlins this season. He was brilliant in April, compiling a 2.15 ERA. He kept opponents off the base paths, only walking six in 37.2 innings of work, and limited the home runs, only three in 138 at bats. In his first start in May, he finally earned his first win of the season, throwing seven shut out inning against the Phillies. However, in his next outing, his last, Slowey was pounded. On May 11 against the Dodgers, Slowey gave up five runs and 11 hits in only 4.2 innings. Will he bounce back or will the regression continue?

Despite having issues with control in his last outing, walking four in five innings, Cahill limited the damage to one run, yet still received the loss against the Phils on May 11. Cahill is quietly chugging along with his 2.70 ERA. He may be getting a tad lucky with home runs but not much. He’s becoming the pitcher the D’backs were expecting when they traded for him before last season.

Game 2 (Saturday): Brandon McCarthy (0-3, 5.63) vs. Tom Koehler (0-1, 3.31)

Koehler will be making his second start for the Marlins this season. He’s pitched in seven games this season, but only in his last appearance, on May 12 against the Dodgers, did he start. He went five innings, gave up two runs on seven hits, walked one and struck out one. On the season, he has 10 strike outs and seven walks in 16.1 innings of work. McCarthy was brilliant, finally, in his last outing, shutting out the Phillies on May 12 for eight innings. He struck out five, walked none and only allowed seven hits. Unfortunately, the bullpen blew the lead in the ninth and McCarthy received a no decision. Still, in his last three games, McCarthy has a 3.10 ERA and has struck out 14 and only walked two in 20.1 innings.

 Game 3 (Sunday): Wade Miley (3-2, 3.75) vs. Ricky Nolasco (2-5, 4.39)

In his last start, Nolasco was touched up for six runs in five innings against the Reds on May 14. Nolasco has been up and down all season, four quality starts but also three outings where gave up four runs or more. Despite his home field being a pitcher’s haven, Nolasco has actually been his worst at home. He owns a 5.25 ERA in four games, going 1-2 in the process.

Miley may be showing some flaws after continuing his dominant 2012 into April 2013. But now, he’s had three bad outings in his last four, struggling with command in those bad outings. He walked 12 in 14.1 innings. In his last start, he gave up six earned in five innings and received the loss on May 13 against the Braves.

 The D’backs and Marlins are squaring off for the first time in 2013. The D’backs came out on top in 2012, going 5-3 against the fish, outscoring them 38-32.