Martin Prado was the better player in 2012 and it’s not a stretch that he can be in 2013, as well. If the D’backs are going to make the playoffs, he’ll have to be.

A couple of weeks ago, I was reading a piece by ESPN’s Mark Simon, that took a look at how the Mets could make the playoffs using the WAR statistic. (On a related note, I’m sad to hear about the Baseball Today podcast ending.)

So, I’m going to steal a bit of his work and do the same with the D’backs.

“We start with the idea that every major-league team, even one made up entirely of “Quadruple-A players,” is going to win at least 52 games.

“We then take the approach that if you sum a team’s total Wins Above Replacement that it gets from its roster, and add that to 52, you’re going to get a number that is reasonably close to that team’s win total,” Simon wrote in the article.

In the piece, Simon notes that a team needs to get to a WAR number of 38, the total that the five playoff teams in the NL averaged last season. This is a decidedly easier number for the D’backs to reach in 2013 than it was for Simon with the Mets. The Mets earned 20 WAR as a team last season and the D’backs were at 30, only eight away from the needed 38.

So how exactly do the D’backs make up that extra eight Wins?

We’ll start with the “core players.” The players that will be expected to accumulate the most WAR for the D’backs in 2013.

As you can see to the right, the D’backs will need a consistent level of output from their core players. The problem is, the D’backs don’t have that one player that is reasonably capable of seven WAR to give that initial big boost and make up for inconsistencies elsewhere. Because of that, all of the core players will have to live up to their potential and be consistent as a group to make up for it.

All seven players listed will have to come close to or exceed their 2012 numbers. Prado earned 5.4 WAR in 2012 so he’ll have to repeat that despite much of his value in 2012 being tied to his defensive capability in left field for the Braves. Can he provide that defensive value at third? That’s probably unlikely so he’ll have to make up for it with his offense, which is possible in hitter-friendly Chase Field.

Miguel Montero earned 3.7 WAR in 2012, so a little jump to 4 is possible, though he’d have to stay healthy for another entire year and catch 140 games again. Hard to do for a catcher.

The biggest jump we are looking for from a hitter is in Goldschmidt. He earned three WAR in 2012. If some of his 43 doubles turn into home runs to add on to his total of 20 in 2012, he can get there. He’s also been improving greatly on defense and can add a little value there.

For Hill, four WAR would actually be a little step down after he earned 4.6 in 2012.

On the pitchers’ side of things, Ian Kennedy would need to take the biggest jump overall. He was only at 2.1 in 2012 and will have to double it in 2013 to help out. Kennedy was actually a bit unlucky in 2012 so a slight jump can be expected. To double his WAR, though? He’ll have to be 2011′s version of himself again.

Cahill will only have to make a small jump from 2.5 in 2012. Miley would have to duplicate his 2012 effort in which he earned 3.2 WAR.

If all that happens, the D’backs will be sitting at 27 WAR, 11 more to go to reach 38. Well, sort of. Not everybody contributes positive WAR during a season. With pitchers’ hitting and sub-par performances from short-term relief pitchers and call ups, it can cost quite a bit of value.

According to Simon, the average NL playoff team in 2012 lost 7.4 WAR to less than replacement level performances during the season. We’ll call that 7.5 and subtract it from our total, giving us 19.5 WAR so far.

So where will the other 18.5 wins we will need to make the playoffs come from?

Well, we haven’t even mentioned any outfielder, yet. Upton and Chris Young combined for four WAR in 2012 in down seasons. But that’s still a decent amount to try to replace.

Cody Ross and Adam Eaton will be charged with those duties while a combination of Jason Kubel and Gerardo Parra will try to do better than their combined 2.4 WAR in 2012 in left.

Of course Parra will also patrol center to give Eaton days off every once in awhile but for this exercise, we’ll try to separate as much as we can.

Eaton had a pretty remarkable 0.8 WAR in only 103 PAs in 2012. If we extrapolate that to a full season of 600 plate appearances, about 145 games, that’s 4.8 WAR, which would put Eaton in breakout-player of 2013 status. So lets be a little more reasonable and knock that down to 3.5 WAR.

Ross was worth 1.6 WAR in Boston in 2012 in 130 games, the most he’s played since 2009. If we give him a similar amount of games, he’ll have to jump to two WAR for the D’backs.

Parra earned 430 plate appearances in 2012 and Kubel had 571, it’d be REALLY difficult to get those two that much again if Ross and Parra stay healthy-ish, so drop each to 400 and 500 They’ll have to out-perform their 2012 versions to make it to three WAR combined. Kubel was the main problem with only .8 WAR in 2012. However, with a few more games at DH in 2013, his value may not be hurt as much defensively while still getting valuable at bats.

After totaling the outfield, we are now at 28 WAR as a team, still 10 more to go.

The best job GM Kevin Towers has done for the D’backs is put together an impressive bullpen. D’backs relievers amassed an impressive accumulated WAR of 4.4 in 2012. David Hernandez, Brad Ziegler and JJ Putz each had over one WAR, pretty good for relievers.

If the bullpen can get to four WAR again in 2013, that would be a great advantage over many other teams. That leaves six WAR from two starting pitching spots and the D’backs’ shortstop, who’ll most likely be Cliff Pennington to start the season. Pennington had a 1.6 WAR in 2012 with Oakland in 462 PAs. It’s safe to assume that’s about the ceiling for him in Arizona, as well. Can the D’backs get .4 from whoever fills in for him the rest of the time? Possible.

That now leaves only four WAR to get from the remaining two starting pitcher spots in the rotation. With Brandon McCarthy and his two WAR with Oakland in only 18 games in 2012 in the fold now, he can surprise us all and get the remaining four WAR needed all by himself. Luckily for the D’backs, they also have a couple of capable guys competing for the fifth spot in the rotation. If the D’backs can squeeze two WAR out of a combination of Tyler Skaggs, Patrick Corbin, Josh Collmenter and perhaps Daniel Hudson when he returns, that’ll get the D’backs to the magic 38 WAR.

So what did I learn during this exercise? The D’backs will need health and some luck, just like every other team hoping to make the playoffs, but it’s still very realistic that the D’backs can return to the playoffs despite the losses of Upton and Young, even if it’s the one-game wild card playoff.

Feb 24, 2012; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks executive vice president and general manager Kevin Towers during spring training at Salt River Fields. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Like most fans, I have been somewhat perplexed by Towers desire to trade Upton. I just didn’t think the potential that he possessed was worth giving up on at this point in his young career. Giving up a 25-year-old veteran who had shown flashes of brilliance in his career is a thing many GM’s would be afraid to do, but Towers did not hesitate once his mind was made up to jettison the talented, but mercurial outfielder. He just had to wait for what he thought was the best deal he could get for the right fielder. When the Seattle deal fell apart, he maintained that he would not get held for ransom in a deal for Upton and in getting a solid veteran in Martin Prado and a talented young pitcher in Randall Delgado, both pieces could help the D’backs this season.

What gets lost in most of the criticism surrounding Towers, is that he has been at this gig for a long, long time. Towers enters 2012 with 15 years of experience as a Major League general manager to join the Oakland Athletics’ Billy Beane and the San Francisco Giants’ Brian Sabean as the fourth longest-tenured active GM in Major League Baseball. With 1,207 wins as a General Manager, Towers is one of eight current GMs to post at least 1,200 victories during their career.

Feb 24, 2012; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks executive vice president and general manager Kevin Towers (right) and manager Kirk Gibson during spring training at Salt River Fields. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

He served as the San Diego Padres General Manager from 1995-2009. During his time as Padres GM, the Padres won division titles in 1996 and ’98, and 2005 and ’06. They missed winning the wild card in 2007 after losing a 13-inning tiebreaker game at Colorado.

He has a vision for the franchise moving forward and it involves a gritty and gutty franchise shaped in the image of his manager, Kirk Gibson. It also involves putting together a lineup that will make more contact and avoid striking out in large numbers. Finally, like all Towers teams of the past, he has put together a very good bullpen and decent starting pitching staff that will have to carry an Arizona team that will be more about manufacturing runs than playing for the long ball.

While he may have lost some leverage during the time Upton was on the market, you can understand what Towers is trying trying to do with this latest trade if you look back on some of his comments when he was first hired as Diamondbacks GM.

“Personally, I like contact hitters. I like guys that have good pitch recognition. Strikeouts are part of the game, but if you have four or five or six guys in your lineup, it’s hard to sustain any sort of rally,” Towers said in 2010.

If you look at the four big pieces, Towers has moved during his reign as D’backs general manager (Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Chris Johnson and Justin Upton), he is eliminating guys who are consistently posting high strikeout numbers. All four of those players posted strikeout rates of over 19% as D’backs players over the last two seasons. The D’backs already have four players, including the newly acquired Cody Ross, who are inclined to strike out quite a bit. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt, catcher Miguel Montero and outfielder Jason Kubel all strike out over 20% of the time, so the elimination of Drew, Young/Upton and Johnson will drop three guys out of the lineup (with the Ross addition) that strike out way too much for Towers liking.

Sep 09, 2012; Flushing, NY,USA; Atlanta Braves left fielder Martin Prado (14) flies out to left during the third inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

The players replacing those that are now gone, are contact hitters with very low strikeout rates. Prado is an excellent contact hitter and his strikeout rate is near 11% for his career. That is up near the very top of the National League as Prado is regarded by some to be among the best contact hitters in baseball. Adam Eaton, who will get the chance to win the center field position is in the same mold as Prado, striking out less than 15% of the time for his career. At shortstop, Willie Bloomquist, Cliff Pennington and Didi Gregorius all strike out less than 20% of the time with Bloomquist having the lowest percentage of the three (15.8%).

Towers has pulled off big trades before with success. Remember, this is a man who once commented that he’s a “sludge merchant,” able to move unproductive players with big contracts for more productive players. He built contenders in the mid-1990s by acquiring slugger Greg Vaughn and pitchers Kevin Brown and Sterling Hitchcock. He also twice acquired Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson.

In one of his biggest trades, Towers acquired All-Star right-hander Chris Young and All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez in a six-player deal with Texas in January 2006. That seemed to turn out pretty well for the Padres during their run of success in the late 90′s

Towers has been placed in situations and has had to make do with tight player payrolls, which the D’backs have to contend with. In July 2009, he saved the Padres $56 million by trading ace Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox for four pitchers. Upton’s salary is $9.75 million for 2013 and and sky rockets after that to $14.25 million in 2014 and $14.5 million in 2015.  Johnson’s salary is $2.875 million this season and he is a free agent after the completion of this season. Prado’s salary last season was $4.75 million and he is arbitration eligible going into 2013. The D’backs have said the would like to sign him to a long-term extension. Delgado made $480,000 last season and his also arbitration eligible.

You also should remember that in his first season at the helm of the Diamondbacks baseball operations, the team won 94 games and the National League West Division title just one season after finishing in last place with 97 losses. As a result of the 29-game turn around, Towers finished third in The Sporting News Major League Baseball Executive of the Year voting.

Let’s not jump to too fast a conclusion with this trade as it may turn out that Kevin Towers vision for this team is just what the team needed to win games in the difficult National League West division. GM’s are paid the big bucks to take risks and gambles and not many would have traded Upton. His confidence in doing so leads me to believe that he knows exactly what he is doing and the D’backs are going to be better off for it in the long run.

Image: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

The D’backs have made several trades and acquisitions in the last few months in an attempt to facilitate progress. There is no need to recap them here as you can read all about them in previous posts on Venom Strikes.

For now, let’s just look at the roster position by position and see if the team has progressed or regressed with certain acquisitions. If a position will be filled with a returning player, let’s look at whether a progression or a regression should be expected.

At catcher, Miguel Montero will be back coming off a stellar 2012 campaign. He caught a career-high 141 games for the D’backs and accumulated 15 home runs, 25 doubles and a .391 On-Base Percentage (10^th best in the league).

While the OBP was much higher than his previous career best, .355 in 2009, his other numbers indicate that the D’backs should expect a similar performance in 2013 with perhaps a tick up in power. Montero had a high Batting Average on Balls In Play that might cause a drop in his batting average but his career-best walk percentage in 2012 shows more discipline at the plate that should carry over into 2013 and keep his OBP high.

Verdict: Some progression.

At first base, Paul Goldschmidt also returns in 2013 as the full-time man at first. He had a breakout 2012 season but not in the way expected. Goldschmidt was seen as an all-power guy that lacks discipline at the plate. Instead, he showed he had plenty of discipline at the plate – a .359 OBP – and not as much power as expected – 20 home runs. However, Goldy also hit 43 doubles, tied for ninth-best in the league.

It’s safe to assume that a few of those doubles will turn into home runs in 2013 and we’ll see a tick up in Goldschmidt’s slugging percentage. If that uptick in power comes with a similar discipline at the plate, Goldy could be an elite power bat. Combine that with his pretty good defense, and Goldschmidt could possibly be a six-win player.

Verdict: Progression.

At second, Aaron Hill completes a returning right side of the infield. Hill had a career year in 2012, showing off his power, 26 home runs, his plate discipline, .360 OBP, and outstanding defense. He ended with 4.6 bWAR.

The biggest reason for Hill’s return in power was a big uptick in his HR/FB percentage. He had an 8.9 percent number in 2012 after three straight years of under four percent. But the 8.9 number is not his career high. In 2009, he had an 11.7 percent number and a 10.8 in 2010. But those two are really not sustainable. Perhaps he regresses closer to his career average, which will drop his power numbers just a bit. His defense and OBP should be similar.

Verdict: slight regression.

The D’backs spent the entire offseason in search of a shortstop, a big hole last year. To this point, it’s unclear who will be starting on opening day but it will definitely be a new name. Newcomers Cliff Pennington and Didi Gregorius are both stellar with the glove up the middle. That’s where they will make most of their impact. Last season, Willie Bloomquist and John McDonald split time at short.

Bloomquist was bad defensively but provided some value on offense. Alternatively, McDonald was pretty good defensively, but provided zero value on offense.

Pennington and McDonald are similar players. Pennington provided almost two bWAR on defense alone last season but only provided replacement level production on offense despite 462 plate appearances.

There seems to be no room for improvement for Pennington after five seasons in the league. If the D’backs hope to improve at shortstop, they’ll have to rely on the offensive progression of Gregorius. If he progresses to even league average offensively, Gregorius can be an outstanding player for the D’backs for years to come. If he doesn’t, the D’backs will essentially have a John McDonald on their roster for years to come.

Verdict: Same

The D’backs seem to be set on bringing Chris Johnson back at third base. Johnson spent half of 2012 with Houston before being acquired by the D’backs. He basically hit his career numbers across the board with a .281/.326/.451 slash line in 2012. There’s no reason to see much progression or regression.

Verdict: Same

Left field is one of the question marks for the D’backs after the signing of Cody Ross. It seems that one of Jason Kubel, Gerardo Parra or Justin Upton will be moved to make room for Ross in the lineup. For now, I’ll assume that Kubel will be moved. In that case, Ross, Parra and center fielder Adam Eaton will form a three-man rotation in left and center. So I’ll take a look at both positions together.

Parra and Eaton both hit left-handed while Ross is right-handed. In a perfect world, Parra and Eaton would hit against right-handed starters while Ross is moved in to either center or left against lefties and to spell Parra or Eaton at other times. However, Ross was also signed to a three-year, $27 million dollar deal. That suggests he’ll play more than just as a platoon and fourth outfielder.

So who sits, Parra or Eaton? Ross has played 387 games in center and 534 in a corner-outfield spot. In any case, it’s difficult to project just how the 162 games will be split up between the three players, with Eaton and Ross taking over for Chris Young and Kubel in the outfield.

Eaton could be the leadoff hitter the D’backs have been searching for with a similar defensive ability to Young. Ross is probably pretty similar to Kubel from the opposite side of the plate. But with Eaton, it should be a slight improvement overall in left and center.

Verdict: some progression

I’ve written extensively about Justin Upton and how highly I think of him as a person and player. It’s not hard to see that he had a down year last season. But he still delivered good value with plate discipline, smart base running and good defense.

All of those attributes should continue in 2013 and I believe he will have a big bounce-back year in the power department. In fact, as a glimpse to tomorrow’s piece, I have a bold prediction that Upton will demolish his previous career high in home runs with 40 bombs in 2013.

Most of his power was zapped for the start of the 2012 season with a nagging thumb injury but he had six home runs in September once he was fully healthy. I expect he maintains that pace in 2013 and hits 40 home runs in a possible MVP campaign.

Verdict: Big Progression

I’ll take a look at the starting rotation and bullpen tomorrow. Keep an eye out.