Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Eric Chavez greets teammate first baseman Paul Goldschmidt after Goldschmidt hit a two run homer during the first inning against the Miami Marlins. IMAGE: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

In case you’re not an Internet baseball junky like the present author, you may not be aware that a new tool was recently released that allows us to look ahead to the playoffs like never before. FanGraphs recently released a new standings forecast tool that projects the final standings of the season. To do this, the model takes lots of factors into account. For example, it uses a team’s current record, the allotment of playing time to players, the health of players, their projected production and much more to project the final standings. I won’t pretend to be able to explain every aspect of the model because I’m just barely functional at math, but you can read more about it here. Better yet, the standings are updated daily, so you should bookmark them now.

So why would I tell you about this? Well, it currently predicts the Diamondbacks to finish the season with 85 wins and 77 losses. That would be good for second in the division, behind the Giants who are projected to win 87 games and ahead of the Dodgers who, despite their terrible start, are projected to win 82. More importantly, it puts the Diamondbacks in the thick of the wild card race and not far behind the Giants for the division.

Along with the Giants, the Cardinals and the Braves are projected win their respective divisions. That leaves quality teams like the Reds, Pirates, and Nationals to compete with the Diamondbacks for a bid into the postseason. The Reds are projected to finish with 87 wins while the Pirates are currently projected for 86 wins. Both the Nationals and Diamondbacks are projected to win 85. Essentially, Arizona will have to outperform the two of these three teams (CIN, PIT, WAS) at the very least to reach the playoffs if Arizona doesn’t win the NL West outright.

If the team can win two extra games and reach 87 wins, they’ll likely make the playoffs and be in better position to capitalize on any slip by the Giants. These two extra victories, or “marginal wins,” are the most critical wins to the team’s season. Our playoff destiny likely hangs in the balance of the team being able to achieve a measly two more wins than their current projection.

Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers. IMAGE: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

This is where Kevin Towers, Kirk Gibson and the rest of the brain trust earns their cash. These two extra wins likely don’t reside on the current roster. Stabilizing the bullpen with the right acquisition(s) could net an extra win or two alone. A right-handed bench bat and the proper usage of the outfield when Adam Eaton returns could also make a (relatively) large difference. Of course, staying healthy will be critical, too. We should assume that the Reds, Pirates and Nationals will likely try to make similar moves in the trade market to ensure their success, so we’ll be competing with them in the trade market as well as in the standings.

Maximizing the current roster should be the number one priority, closely followed by shoring up any weaknesses through trades and/or call-ups. Standing pat likely won’t get it done unless some players significantly overachieve. Didi won’t hit .350 forever and Corbin won’t keep his ERA at 1.50 all season. Conversely, Montero will start to click eventually and McCarthy has nowhere to go but up. Regression will happen in Arizona, as it does all throughout baseball. With that said, the front office shouldn’t bank on small sample size performances when making decisions about what to do to improve the team down the line. KT and Company are smart enough to know this.

Now that we know where we stand over 25% of the way through the season, it’s important that the team makes the necessary adjustments to pick up an extra win or two. Hit 87 wins and you’re likely in. Finish with 83 and you’re likely out. 84 or 85 and anything can happen.  This is a quality team, but a little extra nudge from the front office and coaching staff will be required if we want to see the playoffs. They know this and I don’t think the 2013 Arizona Diamondbacks are a finished product at the moment.

Kirk Gibson was not smiling before Monday’s game against the Reds. Image: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

You could easily see why both managers were so animated  in their positions.  However, once Gibson decided to that he wasn’t budging from his stance, Baker should have just backed off.  I understand that the courtesy of playing by different rules in opposing ballparks takes place from time to time.  However, I do not blame Gibby for being so steadfast in wanting McCarthy to get some AB’s.  The right-hander could have as many as 60-75 plate appearances in 2013 after having a grand total of 10 in his previous seven seasons.  There will be times when he will be asked to do more than lay down a bunt.  Who wants to have their pitcher become an automatic out?  McCarthy needs as many repetitions as possible because during the early part of Spring Training, he may get at most three meaningful swings per start. 

Monday’s dustup could be the result of two hard-nosed, prideful former World Series champion players that bring their edginess to their current positions.  Before June, the two teams actually meet in the final two preseason games for both teams at Chase Field March 29th and 30th.  I can’t imagine there will be any carry-over effect between the two men at the end of the month.  When June 21st arrives,  they can even share a meal before the game.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks acquired Didi Gregorius on Tuesday in a three team, nine player trade that attempted to solidify Arizona’s future at the shortstop position. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks continued their busy off-season on Tuesday by acquiring what they hope to be their answer at shortstop for years to come in a three-team, nine player trade also involving the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians. Arizona acquired young shortstop Didi Gregorius from Cincinnati and left-handed reliever Tony Sipp and first baseman Lars Anderson from Cleveland.

Arizona shipped prized pitching prospect Trevor Bauer and relievers Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw to Cleveland. Cleveland also acquired outfielder Drew Stubbs from the Reds. Cincinnati received Indians outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, shortstop Jason Donald and about $3.5 million from Cleveland.

Arizona’s Trevor Bauer was shipped to the Indians on Tuesday in a three team, nine player deal involving Cleveland and Cincinnati. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The center piece for the Diamondbacks was Gregorius, a player that GM Kevin Towers said reminded him of “a young Derek Jeter”. Considered more of a defensive standout, the 22 year-old Dutchman got his first taste of big league action last season. Gregorius hit .300 with two RBI’s in eight games with Cincinnati last season. In five minor league seasons, Gregorius hit .271 with 20 home runs and 166 RBI’s, splitting time between rookie ball t the lowest level and Class AAA at the highest. His best season in the minors came in 2010, when he hit .272 with five home runs and 41 RBI’s split between Class A ball and  professional baseball in Australia. He also hit 11 triples for the Reds farm system that season.

The Diamondbacks had an obvious falling out with Trevor Bauer and he became expendable with the signing of Brandon McCarthy last week. While Bauer has massive potential, his throwing program and attitude irked people in the organization and he became surplus for the Diamondbacks. They had to give him up to get their man in Gregorius. Bryan Shaw was going to see his role reduced this season with the acquisition of Health Bell and Albers was seen as a stop-gap in the bullpen for the short term.

Tony Sipp will get his chance to compete for a left-handed spot in the Arizona bullpen with Matt Reynolds. The left-handed Sipp pitched the last four seasons in Cleveland. Last season, Sipp was 1-2 with a 4.42 ERA in 63 appearances for the Indians.

Anderson will most likely be sent down to Class AAA Reno. Anderson hit .250, with 9 home runs and 59 RBI’s last season with Class AAA Pawtucket and Columbus.