Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Eric Chavez greets teammate first baseman Paul Goldschmidt after Goldschmidt hit a two run homer during the first inning against the Miami Marlins. IMAGE: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

In case you’re not an Internet baseball junky like the present author, you may not be aware that a new tool was recently released that allows us to look ahead to the playoffs like never before. FanGraphs recently released a new standings forecast tool that projects the final standings of the season. To do this, the model takes lots of factors into account. For example, it uses a team’s current record, the allotment of playing time to players, the health of players, their projected production and much more to project the final standings. I won’t pretend to be able to explain every aspect of the model because I’m just barely functional at math, but you can read more about it here. Better yet, the standings are updated daily, so you should bookmark them now.

So why would I tell you about this? Well, it currently predicts the Diamondbacks to finish the season with 85 wins and 77 losses. That would be good for second in the division, behind the Giants who are projected to win 87 games and ahead of the Dodgers who, despite their terrible start, are projected to win 82. More importantly, it puts the Diamondbacks in the thick of the wild card race and not far behind the Giants for the division.

Along with the Giants, the Cardinals and the Braves are projected win their respective divisions. That leaves quality teams like the Reds, Pirates, and Nationals to compete with the Diamondbacks for a bid into the postseason. The Reds are projected to finish with 87 wins while the Pirates are currently projected for 86 wins. Both the Nationals and Diamondbacks are projected to win 85. Essentially, Arizona will have to outperform the two of these three teams (CIN, PIT, WAS) at the very least to reach the playoffs if Arizona doesn’t win the NL West outright.

If the team can win two extra games and reach 87 wins, they’ll likely make the playoffs and be in better position to capitalize on any slip by the Giants. These two extra victories, or “marginal wins,” are the most critical wins to the team’s season. Our playoff destiny likely hangs in the balance of the team being able to achieve a measly two more wins than their current projection.

Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers. IMAGE: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

This is where Kevin Towers, Kirk Gibson and the rest of the brain trust earns their cash. These two extra wins likely don’t reside on the current roster. Stabilizing the bullpen with the right acquisition(s) could net an extra win or two alone. A right-handed bench bat and the proper usage of the outfield when Adam Eaton returns could also make a (relatively) large difference. Of course, staying healthy will be critical, too. We should assume that the Reds, Pirates and Nationals will likely try to make similar moves in the trade market to ensure their success, so we’ll be competing with them in the trade market as well as in the standings.

Maximizing the current roster should be the number one priority, closely followed by shoring up any weaknesses through trades and/or call-ups. Standing pat likely won’t get it done unless some players significantly overachieve. Didi won’t hit .350 forever and Corbin won’t keep his ERA at 1.50 all season. Conversely, Montero will start to click eventually and McCarthy has nowhere to go but up. Regression will happen in Arizona, as it does all throughout baseball. With that said, the front office shouldn’t bank on small sample size performances when making decisions about what to do to improve the team down the line. KT and Company are smart enough to know this.

Now that we know where we stand over 25% of the way through the season, it’s important that the team makes the necessary adjustments to pick up an extra win or two. Hit 87 wins and you’re likely in. Finish with 83 and you’re likely out. 84 or 85 and anything can happen.  This is a quality team, but a little extra nudge from the front office and coaching staff will be required if we want to see the playoffs. They know this and I don’t think the 2013 Arizona Diamondbacks are a finished product at the moment.

Image: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

The D’backs were crushed throughout baseball for the trades that sent Trevor Bauer and Justin Upton packing this offseason. Yet, the main pieces in their haul in those trades, Didi Gregorius and Martin Prado, hit a home run each to give the D’backs their only two runs in the regular nine innings against the Yanks.

Then, after closer J.J. Putz gave up a game-tying solo shot to Francisco Cervelli in the bottom of the ninth, Cody Ross, whose 3-year, $26 million contract he signed this offseason was also panned, delivered the go-ahead single in the 12th to put the D’backs on top for good.

It was sort of a redemption game for GM Kevin Towers as the entire league watches Justin Upton hit home run after home run. Now, nothing can be taken from a one-game sample like today, but it had to feel good anyways.

In the third, Phil Hughes threw a fastball down and in and Gregorius turned on it, driving it out on a line to right field. The home run was Gregorius’ first in the majors and came in his first at bat, and the first pitch, as a D’back.

In the sixth, Hughes tried to go upstairs on Prado, who promptly drove it into the left field bleachers.

The Yanks scored their first run on another mammoth blast off of the bat of Robinson Cano, who was the only blemish on an otherwise outstanding outing from Patrick Corbin.

Corbin went seven innings, only gave up the one run on Cano’s shot, struck out seven and gave up two hits.

In the 12th, Gerardo Parra broke up an 0-for-5 game for him by leading off with a double to right center. After Prado flew out to deep center to move Parra to third, Paul Goldschmidt reached on a catcher’s interference, the second of the game, and Miguel Montero was hit by a pitch to load the bases for Ross.

One of the reasons cited for Ross’ signing in the offseason despite the utter depth of talent in the outfield at the time was his ability to be “clutch.” At least in this case, Ross proved that to be true by hitting a liner into left to score Parra.

Eric Chavez shut the door on the Yanks in the next at bat with a bases clearing double to make the final 6-2.

The win saved the D’backs from the three-game sweep.

The D’backs now travel to Colorado to face the red-hot Rockies, who have won six straight and lead the NL West with an 11-4 record. The pitching match ups look to be Ian Kennedy (1-1, 5.79) against Jhoulys Chacin (2-0, 1.96 and Trevor Cahill (0-2, 3.50) facing off with Jorge De La Rosa (1-1, 3.86). On Sunday, Brandon McCarthy (0-2, 7.47) will be on the bump for the D’backs against a pitcher yet to be determined for the Rockies.

I don’t want to see Miguel Montero in his catcher’s gear the next two games. Image: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Please sit Miguel Montero the next two days.

When I mean sit, I don’t mean take his bat out of the lineup.  Playing at Yankee Stadium can allow him to be the designated hitter as the D’backs get set to face C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes.  DH’ing can give him a little mini break before the Snakes head back to National League and (more importantly) divisional play as after this series, their next 19 games come against NL West opponents.   I understand the team loses a little punch when Wil Nieves is behind the plate, especially now with Aaron Hill out for up to six weeks.  However, Gibson needs to preserve Miggy and get him rest whenever possible.  He has already appeared in every game this season after playing in over 140 the past two years.  Plus, there was the added games of the World Baseball Classic which are obviously not your standard Spring Training affairs.  Considering Sabathia is on the mound tonight, I would seriously think about sitting Miggy the entire game unless there are extra innings or a big hit is needed late and the D’backs are trailing.

While every game counts in the standings, interleague contests are the ones where you can play a little bit differently.  The D’backs are not chasing the Yanks or vice versa for a playoff spot.   The team needs Miguel Montero at catcher to help them beat the San Francisco Giants in September not the New York Yankees in April.   When I see the lineup announced for tonight, I hope Gibby does the right thing.

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