Is Cole Hamels just getting unlucky? Or is it something else?

Unlucky.  Cole has had plenty of issues with run support before, and with bad luck, so combined with a slow start, he’s been pretty ineffective.  Especially for a guy we made such a big deal about signing for six more years.

The stuff’s in there.  We could just really use some more blatant examples of it recently, with so much less potent of a rotation backing him up.

Should Ryan Howard scare opposing fans anymore?

Absolutely.  Have you seen that contract?  They tell stories about it around the bonfire at training camp.

What’s the upside of this team? The downside?

The upside is that we have Cole locked up, Freddy Galvis is youthful and full of vigor, Chase seems to be hitting okay, and Cliff Lee is here.  The downside is that Chooch, Doc, and Chase are all up for reassignment, the team in general is not very good, Ben Revere looks more and more like a complete bust, the parts of the bullpen that work are wastes of money if the other parts of the bullpen that aren’t working continue to not work, and everybody’s only getting older.

Also, it’s all Charlie Manuel or Ruben Amaro‘s fault, depending on the day.

Why do the Phillies’ brass seem perplexed as to why their lineup doesn’t take walks? 

Related, have they heard of baseball reference before?

I’d say probably no.  Ruben Amaro shows a staggering absence of intelligence at times, for a guy who seems to have it all figured out.  His lack of belief in walks and the organizations disbelief in modern stats is sickening at times, and probably why some players (AHEM Dom Brown) have been mishandled in the recent past.

How mad are you at Kevin Towers for giving your divisional rival a christmas present of Justin Upton?

I would be pretty mad, but honestly, we’ve got about 1,000 problems to worry about before we can fathom taking on the Braves, let alone Upton.  Then again, he is an individual example of the Braves as a whole – lot of home runs, lot of strike outs.  They’re gonna hack.  And it’s already bringing them back down to earth.

Is Michael Young as classy as everyone says he is?

I’ll say sure.  But I was never worried about that.

If he could convince a ground ball to hop into his glove using that keen sense of clubhouse leadership, that’d be great.  But they’re usually moving too fast.

His questions and my answers:

So is Ian Kennedy going to be a problem or can we depend on his location sputtering out again?

This, sadly, is what we can expect from Kennedy. He’s been pretty mediocre for the past 12 months. And that’s mostly been tied to his lack of command with the fastball. While he isn’t walking a ton of people, he also grooves way too many to be effective.

J.J. Putz has decided to take some time off to be injured.  How reliable is the Dbacks bullpen now?  Express in terms of Chad Durbins.

I believe I saw that Putz was heading to the Dominican for a couple of months. I can’t confirm that, but nonetheless, it’s a weird time to take a vaca. However, I believe the bullpen should still be (just a tad) better than one Chad Durbin. David Hernandez has had a couple of shaky outings but has been pretty good and should get better. And outside of Heath Bell‘s first appearance, he’s been (stunningly) pretty good. Combined with Brad Ziegler and Matt Reynolds, the pen should be in decent shape still.

Is it correct to say Paul Goldschmidt is “becoming a star?”  And if so, what kind of a star; one that shines brightly for a long time, or when that grows too big and kills a lot of people?

He’s a star that’s going to kill a lot of people. Just not in the way you were meaning. I think he singlehandedly murdered Tim Lincecum‘s career and is in the process of burying the corpse of Chris Capuano now. He’s been a revelation. He’s improved his walk and strikeout rate, chase percentage and his fielding immensely over the past couple of seasons. He’s approaching top three first baseman in the league quickly.

Lie to me.  What do you think of this team without Roy Halladay?

They’re great. One of the best staffs that can’t pitch and one of the best lineups that can’t walk (or score) I’ve ever seen.

Is there a young prospect with a better name than “Didi Gregorius” in baseball right now?

Xander Bogaerts is a pretty dang good name. Adeiny Hechavarria? Basically all shortstops in baseball it looks like.

Arizona defeated the San Francisco Giants in two out of three games last week at AT&T Park, but could have swept them if the bullpen did their job. The Giants will look to do the same in Arizona, but they are struggling as they were just swept by the San Diego Padres.

Game 1 (Monday):

Matchup – Matt Cain (0-2, 6.59 ERA) vs. Ian Kennedy (1-2, 4.70 ERA)

This is a match up of pitchers that are looking for some consistency with their starts on the season. Kennedy pitched good his last time against the Giants, as he just allowed one run in six innings of work. Kennedy seems to be pitching like was in the 2011 season, when he won 21 games for Arizona. Kennedy has good numbers in his career against the Giants, as indicated by 6-2 record in 14 starts and 2.33 ERA.

Cain is looking for something to build on, he has struggled in each start this season, and has allowed a total 6 HR in last three starts. Cain has 8-4 record with a 4.13 ERA in 16 starts at Chase Field

Game 2 (Tuesday)

Matchup – Madison Bumgarner (3-0, 1.87 ERA) vs. Trevor Cahill (1-3, 3.00 ERA)

The match up in this game is about one starter dominating the opposition, and the other starter trying the find the command of a pitch that is vital to his success. Cahill did earn his first win of the season in his last start, but barely made it through five innings. The main reason of this is because he could not command or locate his sinker pitch at all. Cahill’s command will have to improve, to give Arizona a chance at earning a win.

Bumgarner has been the ace of the Giants pitching staff, and has shown no signs of slowing down. The main reason he has had success this season is because how effectively he has been able to locate his fastball and his secondary pitches. The control he has shown has been impeccable, as indicated by his 34 strike outs to only eight walks. He also has a 3.22 career ERA on the road.

Game 3 (Wednesday)

Matchup – Tim Lincecum (2-1, 3.64 ERA) vs. Brandon McCarthy (0-3, 7.48 ERA)

This is a match up where the Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt gets to face his favorite pitcher on the planet. He owns Lincecum in his career, as indicated by him hitting five HR in 14 at-bats. The Diamondbacks key to winning this game will rely on well McCarthy pitches in this start. He has looked good in just one start this season, but the other starts he has struggled with his command and location. Another reason why McCarthy has struggled in each start this season, is that he has given up eight hits to the opposition in each start.

Lincecum has pitched well this season, but has allowed too many free passes to the opposition. He has walked 17 batters, but he has worked around this by striking out 32 batters. Arizona will need to find a way to take advantage of this, if he struggles again with his command in this game.

The Diamondbacks are 2-1 against the Giants this season and were 9-9 against them in 2012.

Both offer something a little different than the other. One is cheaper on some groceries and the other is cheaper in other groceries. So in an attempt to maximize our groceries and minimize our spending, my wife and I create two separate shopping lists – one with groceries that are usually cheaper at one store and another for groceries that are cheaper at the other. It’s our own personal “Moneyball” if you will. Billy Beane has nothing on us.

Okay, so we’re spending $200 instead of $60 million, but the idea is the same. We’re trying to maximum the value of our dollar.

Each season, every MLB team tries to do the same thing – maximize the value for their dollar. For teams like Beane’s A’s, the Rays and the D-backs, that means being only able to spend half, or less, the money that teams like the Dodgers, Yankees and Tigers can. So every dollar counts.

Miguel Montero was the latest Diamondback to sign a long-term deal but the D-backs will have to do some other shopping this offseason to round out their roster. Image: Chris Humphreys-US PRESSWIRE

With that in mind, I’ve taken a quick look at what the D-backs will be shopping for this offseason. Using Baseball Reference and Cot’s Contracts, I was able to compile the D-backs guaranteed contracts in 2013, arbitration eligible players and pre-arbitration eligible players.

To start, the D-backs used a 13 position player, 12 pitcher composition of their 25-man roster for most of the season. The D-backs have 10 players with guaranteed contracts in 2013 (numbers in parenthesis are in millions): Miguel Montero ($10), Justin Upton ($9.75), Jason Kubel ($7.5), Aaron Hill ($5.5), Willie Bloomquist ($1.9), John McDonald ($1.5), Heath Bell ($9), J.J. Putz ($6.5), Trevor Cahill ($5.5) and David Hernandez ($1.25). That fills six position player spots, one starting pitcher spot and three bullpen spots for a total of $58.4 million (minus $4 million that the Marlins will be paying of Bell’s contract).

Other players that are locks to make the opening day roster are Gerardo Parra, Paul Goldschmidt, Adam Eaton, Cliff Pennington, Ian Kennedy, Brad Ziegler, Matt Albers, Josh Collmenter and Wade Miley.

Parra, Kennedy, Ziegler and Albers are all arbitration eligible while Goldschmidt, Eaton, Pennington, Collmenter and Miley are all pre-arbitration. The exact numbers for each of these players’ salaries for next year is volatile so I won’t even pretend to guess at that number. However, the number will likely take the D-backs close to a $70 million cap number.

In addition, the D-backs have options on catcher Henry Blanco (club option for $1.24) and Matt Lindstrom (mutual option for $4). The D-backs seem unlikely to pick up Lindstrom’s option now with Bell, Ziegler, Putz, Hernandez, Collmenter and Albers already in the pen.

The option on Blanco is up in the air at this point.

Now that we’re all caught up with the details, it looks like the D-backs will have six spots on their grocery list to fill the 25-man roster: 3B, a back-up catcher, a bench corner infielder, two starting pitchers and one more relief pitcher.

The two starting spots seem to be the easiest to fill from within. Patrick Corbin probably is being considered a strong candidate for one of the two starting spots available. Corbin pitched well for the D-backs in stretches last season but did finish the season badly and ended with a 4.54 ERA. Corbin may be destined for the bullpen at some point. Last season as a reliever he had a 1.54 ERA, and as a starter, he had a 4.91 ERA.

Trevor Bauer struggled mightily in his stint with the D-backs last season but has to be a favorite to fill one of the two starting spots. Bauer, by pretty much all accounts, was stubborn in his approach and never wanted to challenge hitters by throwing strikes. Basically, he tried to get major league hitters to chase pitches out of the strike zone. Well, they’re major league hitters for a reason and wouldn’t give in to Bauer. Because of that, he had a 6.06 ERA and walked 13 batters in 16.1 innings of work.

The frustrating part is that Bauer has plus stuff and could challenge all hitters in the strike zone and get results. If he is able to learn that lesson and throw strikes, he could be the top of the rotation pitcher the D-backs thought they were drafting.

However, the pitcher I think should and will end up in one of the starting spots is Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs threw 29.1 innings in 2012 and compiled a mediocre at best 5.83 ERA. But I for one came away from his outings impressed. He wasn’t wild and has a repertoire that should be able to miss bats at the major league level. He’s spent four seasons in the minor leagues compiling a 2.98 ERA and appears to be ready to make the next step.

That fifth spot will either be Bauer or Corbin but signing a veteran free agent to a one-year deal worth $5 million or so isn’t outside of the realm of possibility, either.

The next biggest priority for the D-backs should be a starting third baseman. Chris Johnson took the D-backs by storm after his acquisition from the Astros last season but slowed down quickly. He is arbitration eligible this season for the first time and if the D-backs choose to sign him, he will undoubtedly be the starting third baseman. I think this might be the best option for the D-backs at this point. However, there are other options if the D-backs decide to go another way.

Ryan Wheeler played for the D-backs regularly after his call up in late July last season. However, he failed to impress. He had a .294 OBP and a .339 Slugging in 109 at bats. Now, that’s still a small sample size and the D-backs may believe in Wheeler enough to give him the starting spot, but I think that would be a mistake. Wheeler has always been strike out prone and his defense is suspect at best.

The problem the D-backs face, if they don’t believe in Wheeler or Johnson, is the free agent class at third, though. The class is mediocre with Kevin Youkilis probably the best option. The D-backs would likely only want a short-term contract to serve as a stop gap until prospect Matt Davidson is ready (most likely the 2013 season).

Yet another possibility is trading for a third baseman, which GM Kevin Towers has shown he is not afraid to do. Still, I think the most likely option, out of the few mediocre options, is signing Johnson.

That leaves a backup catcher and one more bench player. Montero played a league leading 141 games at catcher last season. That left a paltry 21 games for backup Blanco for the entire season. Montero’s durability is part of the reason the D-backs signed him to a six-year, $65.9 million deal during the season. However, that contract is also a big reason to make sure Montero stays healthy by sitting him a few more games.

They should take his starts down to a more manageable 125-130 per year. That’s still quite a bit but it also makes a decent backup catcher a bit more valuable. Blanco probably is not the answer at 41 years old. A good right-hand hitting catcher to allow Montero to sit against tough lefties is probably the goal. Perhaps a guy like Kelly Shoppach at one year and $1.5 million would be a good fit. Shoppach has a career .868 OPS against lefties and a .658 OPS against righties.

Having that extra bat to come off the bench against lefties can be very valuable to the D-backs.

To fill the last bench spot, the D-backs should look at a left-handed hitter that can fill in at first to give Goldschmidt some help against tough righties. (Side note: as much as Goldy is known for absolutely owning Tim Lincecum, he has actually struggled against righties and killing left-handed pitching. He has a 200 point difference in OPS from lefties to righties.)

A guy like Adam Laroche, if his option is not picked up by the Nationals, should strongly be considered by the D-backs.

To round out the shopping list, the D-backs will need one more relief pitcher to fill out the bullpen. That will almost assuredly come from with the organization. Guys like Bryan Shaw and Sam Demel will probably be the front runners for that slot. I’d like to see the D-backs give Shaw another shot.

All-in-all, here is the 25-man roster that is most likely (plus a few things I would personally like to see) going into 2013:

C- Montero

1B- Goldschmidt

2B- Hill

3B- Johnson

SS- Pennington

LF- Kubel

CF- Eaton

RF- Upton

BN- Parra

BN- Bloomquist

BN- McDonald

BN- Shoppach

BN- LH Power Bat (e.g. Laroche)

SP- Kennedy

SP- Cahill

SP- Miley

SP- Skaggs

SP- Bauer

CL- Putz

SU- Hernandez

RP- Bell

RP- Ziegler

RP- Albers

RP- Collmenter

RP- Shaw