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Dave Stewart is not a fan of PECOTA

christophergaine
Dec 11, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Dave Stewart during a press conference at Chase Field . Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 11, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Dave Stewart during a press conference at Chase Field . Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
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Baseball Prospectus’ annual PECOTA predictions came out two weeks ago to the collective joy of the sabermetric community. This has become somewhat of a social media holiday of sorts, as “PECOTA” was a top trend on Twitter and as most baseball writers seem to offer their attention and opinion to the predictions.

One person, however, is not a fan of the predictions. Diamondbacks general manager Dave Stewart was practically appalled when he heard PECOTA’s 78-84 projection for the Diamondbacks.

“They think we only win 78 games? That’s a joke,” Stewart said in a Washington Post article out today.

Stewart obviously is a little bit biased here, but he probably isn’t wrong. The Diamondbacks finished 79-83 last season, and acquired Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller, Jean Segura and Tyler Clippard this offseason. So it’s hard to imagine them finishing worse this season than they did last year– especially considering the Diamondbacks improved by 16 wins from 2014 to 2015.

This is not the only PECOTA prediction that seemed– to say the least– odd. Some other PECOTA predictions that seem to defy conventional wisdom include:

  • The Rays winning the AL East with 91 wins.
  • The defending World Series champion Royals finishing last in the AL Central with a 76-86 record.
  • The Cardinals, who won 100 games last season, finishing with an 82-80 record.

Last year’s PECOTA predictions predicted just two of the five National League playoff teams correctly– and none in the American League. This is far from the crystal ball it’s cracked out to be, so don’t get too worried about the Diamondbacks’ PECOTA prediction. Dave Stewart is probably right about this one.

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