2015 ZIPS Projections: Starting Pitching
By Joseph Jacquez
The 2015 season is almost here, and before you know it pitchers and catchers will report to spring training. Certain players including Cody Ross, Yasmany Tomas, and Archie Bradley are already working out.
With the 2015 season fast approaching it’s time to once again take a look at ZIPS Projections for the Diamondbacks this time with a focus on pitching. Just letting all of you know ahead of time: it isn’t going to be pretty.
Barring any big a changes in thinking, it appears that the Diamondbacks are done looking for pitching, despite the obvious need for an ace. So it appears were going to have a bunch of guys that would be #3 and #4 starters on other teams. Brace yourselves.
Josh Collmenter is projected to be our top starting pitcher, and that is not saying much. ZIPS projects him to be right around a 2 win player (2.4 zWAR), with a 3.93 FIP over 150.7 IP. A FIP approaching four isn’t top starter material, with a league average ERA+ of 100.
According to ZIPS, Patrick Corbin is expected to make a bit of a comeback after missing all of the last year with Tommy John Surgery.
The bad thing for the Dbacks is that according to these projections, he isn’t going to be close to the pitcher he was in 2013, and the Dbacks really need that version of him in the worst way.
When he does come back, Corbin is projected to put up an FIP of 3.87, with an ERA+ of 105 which is slightly above average for run prevention in 145.3 IP. The Dbacks could really use Corbin in April.
After those two starters, it appears the Dbacks have a bunch of no.4 or no.5 starters that will struggle. Rubby De La Rosa (4.40), and Allen Webster aren’t expected to do very much. De La Rosa is projected for an ERA+ of 89 which is terrible, and a 1.2zWAR. Webster is projected to be worse with an ERA+ of 87 and a 0.9zWAR. Both starters have the stuff, and the upside to better, but don’t expect much.
ZIPS really doesn’t like new Diamondbacks starter Jeremy Hellickson who is projected for a 4.48 era, with an ERA+ of 0.7.
Bronson Arroyo isn’t even projected to throw 107 innings, and were going to need a lot more than a 4.43 era from Trevor Cahill. Vidal Nuno isn’t going to be much better with a projected 4.53 era, and an ERA+ under 100. The Dbacks are really going to have a hard time preventing runs.
Chase Anderson actually is projected to be the Dbacks third best starter with a 4.07 era and a 1.6 zWAR.
Here’s the point: most of these guys are just stop gaps for 2015 until Archie Bradley, Braden Shipley, Aaron Blair, and others are ready, and until the Dbacks find an ace on next years free agent market.
It won’t be fun this year, but at least the future is bright.Tomorrow I will take at ZIPS projections for the Dbacks bullpen.