Atlantis Casino in Reno, Nevada released its over/under win totals for every MLB team last week.
The Diamondbacks’ over/under came in at 84.5, the third-highest mark in the NL West and the eighth-highest mark in the National League. In the division Arizona is behind the Giants and Dodgers, who have over/unders of 90 and 87 respectively. The Giants have the highest over/under in the National League, followed by 89 for the Cubs and 88 for the Mets.
I’m legally obligated to say that I’m not a betting man, though I feel pretty confident in predicting that the Diamondbacks will find themselves on the right side of this number. They experienced a 16-win improvement from 2014 to 2015 and added talent to their bullpen and completely overhauled their pitching staff– at the direct expense of the Dodgers.
It’s reasonable to expect a six-win improvement from the Diamondbacks this season, especially with the Diamondbacks’ offseason moves. Arizona had a 4.04 staff ERA last season, which ranked at the bottom half of the National League. They will now add 2015 ERA champ Zack Greinke and All-Star Shelby Miller into the fold, which will improve the rotation. Their median bullpen ERA has the potential to improve with the addition of the perpetually consistent Tyler Clippard. Arizona should have no problem scoring runs either, as Goldschmidt, Pollock Peralta and Tomas make for a more than stellar middle of the order.
At the same time, the division has not gotten particularly stronger. The Padres lost their best offensive player in Justin Upton and the Rockies shipped away a key contributor in Corey Diackerson. The Giants definitely got better with the additions of Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and Denard Span– never mind the fact that’s an even year. At best, the Dodgers are as good as they were last season.
With this being the case, I’m saying over. But not for money, of course. Just for fun.