Arizona Diamondbacks: GM Offseason Simulation, Fake Trade 2/4
When the FanSided Offseason Simulation officially launched, trade talk started slow – but it didn’t take long to heat up for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
As “simulated” GM Mike Hazen of the Arizona Diamondbacks, we were eager to make contact with as many teams as possible in the Offseason Simulation. Gauging the value of Arizona’s trade chips was easy, but the mandate from Arizona ownership is murky: compete, but lower payroll in the process. Trade discussions launched from unsteady footing such as this dual-purpose plan do not portend a pleasant future in Arizona. Still, we carry on – as many mid-markets do- in our attempt to build a (fake) winner in the desert. Next on the block: Robbie Ray.
With the David Peralta trade in the books, there weren’t many tradeable salaries left on Arizona’s roster – discounting icon Paul Goldschmidt and high-priced ace Zack Greinke. We fished around for interest in Greinke, but with our fake free agency not yet in full swing, teams with money still had their eyes on catching the market’s biggest fish, including former Dback Patrick Corbin.
Our original intention was to hold onto Robbie Ray, essentially, no matter what. The Dbacks left-hander was one of the players I did not anticipate moving unless something significant changed, along with Paul Goldschmidt, Ketel Marte, Alex Avila, Archie Bradley and Nick Ahmed (for differing reasons). Well, the (fake) acquisition of Carlos Carrasco changed some things.
Namely, starting pitching was now an area of depth with Zack Greinke, Carlos Carrasco, Robbie Ray and Zack Godley all under contract. Further, Clay Buchholz was likely an easy re-sign, and he could be paired with the injured Taijuan Walker to take up that fifth spot in the rotation. Beyond those starting five (or six), top prospects Taylor Widener and Jon Duplanier are close enough to the majors to serve as promising, if uncertain depth.
What hadn’t changed with the Carrasco trade is the need to shed payroll. Even before free agency opened, we were floating around the $140MM mark, which is probably about $10MM higher than Diamondbacks ownership prefers.
When the bell for free agency finally did ring, top lefties Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel went off the board pretty quickly – to the White Sox and Nationals, respectively – which only skyrocketing the interest in Ray.
Being as we’d already been approached with interest in the 26-year-old Ray, it wasn’t difficult to push that leverage that existing interest around the league to see what might shake loose. A few offers had come in from Milwaukee and Washington, but nothing to move the needle. That’s when Pittsburgh came calling with an offer headlined by a top-50 prospect.
While simulating the offseason as part of the FanSided Offseason Simulation, we made four trades, which we’ll document and explain in consecutive posts. The second trade was as follows:
Diamondbacks Send:
LHP Robbie Ray ($6.1MM)
Pirates Send:
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT #2 Prospect)
RHP Luis Escobar (PIT #11 Prospect)
RHP Steven Jennings (PIT #12 Prospect)
Hayes is the player that moved the needle here. He’s moved steadily through the Pittsburgh system, succeeding at every stop. In 2018, he hit .293/.375/.444 in Double-A Altoona as a 21-year-old with solid defensive marks at third base. Starting the 2020 season with Pavin Smith and Ke’Bryan Hayes on the infield corners would be a great way to launch the next generation of Diamondbacks stars.
Of course, this is a fake trade, so it’s not the particular player so much as what he represents. A Top-50 offensive prospect with two solid arms, one of whom is relatively close to the majors and coming off a solid season (Escobar) – this is the kind of return the Diamondbacks would feel good about for Ray. Stocking the system with high-potential arms will be an imperative to building the next winner in Arizona.
Granted, trading Ray this season has its downside. He’s only 26, and with two years of arb-eligibility left, he could very well be pitching atop the rotation for the next winner in Arizona.
Still, 2017 was the only season in which he accumulated more than 2 rWAR, he is becoming expensive at $6.1MM with one arb year left, and he’s never eclipsed 175 innings in a season. He value is lower now than it was last season, but if GM Mike Hazen can find a deal similar to this one, I’d bite.
Without another top-of-the-line pitcher like Carrasco in-house, a Ray deal, IRL, is unlikely. His upside, however, is tantalizing, and if there’s a team like the Pirates who are eager to contend, Ray will be highly sought after as a solid alternative to expensive free agent options like Corbin and Dallas Keuchel.
Consider this, cutting the $6.1MM owed to Ray would help a tight Arizona payroll situation, but in our simulation, Corbin went to the White Sox for five years, $150MM, while Keuchel went to the Nationals for 5 years, $110MM. That’s an AAV of $30MM and $22MM, respectively, for two pitchers in their thirties. If the Diamondbacks hold off until those guys are off the board IRL, there might be a move like this to be made.
Next. The Peralta Trade. dark
Once we made this fake trade of Robbie Ray, it began to feel more and more like the Arizona Diamondbacks would be heading for a full-on rebuild, but the Offseason Simulation was still only halfway through and there were many moves yet to be made.