A look at the Diamondbacks 2022 Small Arbitration Class

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 28: Luke Weaver #24 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning at Oracle Park on September 28, 2021 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 28: Luke Weaver #24 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning at Oracle Park on September 28, 2021 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
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SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 28: Luke Weaver #24 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning at Oracle Park on September 28, 2021, in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 28: Luke Weaver #24 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning at Oracle Park on September 28, 2021, in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

The Arizona Diamondbacks are well into their off-season already, despite the MLB playoffs still going on. As such, they are surely trying to figure out what players to sign to extensions, offer a contract to, what each arbitration player will get, and what players they will be interested in signing off the free-agent market this winter. With that said, the team is rather young. They have 27 players on their current 40-man roster under the age of 27. That’s a lot.

As such, one would think that they would have a large arbitration class this year. Surprisingly enough, that’s not the case. Many of their players are still in their rookie years or just completed their first season in the Majors. Due to that, they won’t hit arbitration for at least one more year, if not more. This is of course presuming that when the new CBA is agreed to, nothing drastic happens with player service time and contracts. If something happens, we will be sure to publish a new article about all the new changes.

Anyways, we are going to be looking at the Diamondbacks 2022′ Arbitration class, or the players that will be getting an arbitration contract over the 2021-22 offseason. The Dbacks only have 5 eligible players that are into their arbitration years. Arbitration covers the MLB service years 4-6 unless a pre-signed extension covers those years. I took the expected dollar amount for what we expect each player’s 2022 contract to look like from the famous and oft-correct MLB Trade Rumors’ Matt Schwartz’s arbitration outlook article.

Now, these are just estimates and not exact numbers. Neither does it mean that if the final contract the player and team sign is lower/higher than this number does it mean player/team “won”. In my personal opinion, if a team lets a player reach arbitration, the team already lost. Since, when a player and team go to arbitration, the team’s lawyers rip apart the player and his career/stats to defend why the team thinks the player is worth so much less money. Meanwhile, the player is forced to be in that courtroom and listen to everything the lawyers are saying.

The player finds out exactly what that team thinks of him. Now, of course, the player says it’s “just business” and no “hurt feelings”, but they are humans. That’s got to hurt, and it could hurt the team’s chances of signing that player to an extension. MLB players are human beings, they aren’t machines much to the chagrin of many. Being told you suck, you failed at swinging the bat, being a baseball player affects a player’s mind. It happens a few weeks before Spring Training too as hearings are done in February.

What a way to start the season. You’re starting it arguing with the team you play for. Not the best foot to start the new year on. Anyways, while this arbitration class for the team is rather small, it has a few players that are a part of the core of hopefully the next competing Dbacks team.

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Luke Weaver, Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher

Luke Weaver is in an arbitration off-season. Matt projects Luke to get a 2.7MM contract for arbitration this winter. Now, whether that’s via the team agreeing to a contract to avoid arbitration or not, that’s roughly the number you should expect. This will be the 2nd time that Luke goes through Arbitration with the team after last winter. Of course, the team and Luke agreed to a $1.95 million contract for the 2021 season. Thus, after an injury-filled but decent performance season, he’s about to get an 800-thousand dollar raise. I wish that was the case for me.

Assuming that Luke doesn’t get sent to the minors for an extended period this next season, he’ll go through arbitration a final time next off-season. After the 2023 season, Luke will become a free agent if he doesn’t sign a contract extension with the team before then. Let’s take a look into why Weaver’s getting a smaller than expected raise via arbitration when compared to other starting pitchers.

Well, he’s not pitched over 100 innings since 2018. That’s back when he was with the Cardinals too. He had a marvelous 2019 debut with the Dbacks after being acquired in the Goldschmidt trade throwing 64.1 innings of 2.94 ERA ball with 69 K’s. Unfortunately for him and the team, he suffered an elbow injury and missed the rest of the season. Then, with 2020, he was healthy the whole short-60-game season and threw 52 innings, a decent amount over 12 starts.

It wasn’t a great amount though since, in 2019, he threw more innings over the same amount of starts. Anyways, he struggled greatly in 2020 with a 6.58 ERA, 4.67 FIP, and 18 walks to 55 innings. Not the best platform year to get a huge raise entering your first go-round with the arbitration.

So, he needed a great season to dramatically increase his pay. Even just a healthy season would’ve increased his pay by a lot. Unfortunately for all parties, Luke started the season off great, but yet another injury wiped out the majority of his season. This time, instead of it being his elbow, it was his shoulder. Due to that, he only started 13 games and pitched a tiny amount of 65.2 innings. It’s unfortunate too as we could’ve used a healthy Weaver.

During those innings, he compiled a 4.25 ERA, 4.42 FIP,  58 hits, 20 walks, and 62 K’s. That’s not what you were hoping for. His K/9 innings rate has decreased from 9.7 in 2019 to 8.5 in 21′. He still provided positive WAR at least he was a 0.8 WAR player and he was worth 0.2 wins above average. Also, Luke will be tendered a contract, so don’t worry about him being released.

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Noe Ramirez, Diamondbacks RP

Noe was a revelation for the Dbacks this year after being signed as a minor-league free agent. He started the year with the Angels, but only pitched 3.1 innings and allowed 5 hits and 2 runs. Los Angeles ended up releasing Noe Ramirez despite the face that he had been with LA for 3 1/2 years prior to this one. He had established a consistency as a middle-innings reliever in which he never had an ERA higher than 4.54 or lower than 2.16. He struck out batters consistently above league-average and walked a normal average of batters. In fact, he even started 7 games for the Angels as an Opener in 2019.

Thus, when he came to the Diamondbacks, whom were in desperate need for effective bullpen pitching, one had decent hope he could at least stabilize the 5th-7th innings that the team was struggling to cover. I don’t think anyone expected that he would become the best relief pitcher the team had by the end of the season. Especially when he had been pitching in various parts of MLB seasons since 2015 and is 31 years old.

Yet, that’s what he did as he pitched in 36 games and 32.2 innings with an 0-2 record, 6 games finished and 1 save. He had a 2.76 ERA, 3.48 FIP (best in career), 18 hits allowed, 10 ERs, 11 walks, and 29 K’s. He posted his best hits/9 innings allowed and K/9 innings in the last three years. Thus, why is Matt only projecting him for 1.8 MM dollars as his arbitration pay? Well, for starters relievers don’t get raises really at all in arbitration unless you’re absolutely dominant or rack up a ton of saves. Plus, Noe had struggled staying in the Majors prior to this season.  Additionally, this is his third year of abritration, but he’s a Super 2 player, so he has a 4th year of arbitration next year. I’m pretty confident Mike Hazen will offer Noe a contract.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 23: Carson Kelly #18 of the Arizona Diamondbacks hits a three-run home run during the seventh inning of the MLB game against the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field on September 23, 2021 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Kelsey Grant/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 23: Carson Kelly #18 of the Arizona Diamondbacks hits a three-run home run during the seventh inning of the MLB game against the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field on September 23, 2021 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Kelsey Grant/Getty Images) /

Carson Kelly, Diamondbacks Catcher

The franchise catcher, or at least that’s what he’s setting himself up to be if he keeps playing as good as he has been. Carson debuted in the Majors with a cup of coffee in 2016. He continued to play sparingly in the Majors due to being blocked by Yadier Molina until he was dealt to the Dbacks in the Goldy trade before the 2019 season. In 2019, he got his first official full-season of work in the MLB.

He started off hot but faded down the stretch as he played in the most games in his career that year. In 2020, he struggled as did the rest of the offense. He still managed to hit better than the average MLB catcher though with a 73 OPS+. In 2021, his bat fully took off until, as like with the rest of the roster, the injury bug bit Kelly. From Opening Day to May 13th, Kelly had 4 doubles, 6 HRs, 19 RBIs, 23 walks, 16 K’s, and a .331 batting average.

Then, he broke his toe, came back for a month, and broke his wrist. From May 25th to the end of season, after missing multiple weeks due to those two ailments, Kelly struggled to a .205, .277, .339 batting line with 7 doubles, 7 HRs, 27 RBIs, and 21/58 walks/K’s. It’s apparent that he was struggling a lot post-injury.

Due to that dreadful finish, his overall batting line for the season was .240, .343, .411, .754, 104 OPS+ (way better than the average 49 OPS+ for a catcher), 11 doubles, 1 triple, 13 HRs, 46 RBIs, 44 walks, and 74 K’s. Overall, it was a rather good year for Carson that he can easily use to launch him into his prime years next year. After all, he’s only going to be 27next year. He still was worth 2.2 WAR, 1.8 offensive WAR, and caught base-stealers 23% of the time. We did name him Most Improved Player this year!

Due to his limited playing time early on in his career and the fact that he’s a Super 2 player, this will be his 2nd year of arbitration. Matt is projecting Carson to get roughly 3.0 MM dollars this go-round. Last year, he avoided arbitration with the Diamondbacks after signing for a 1.7 MM dollar deal. He’s under team control through 2024 as he will still have to go through two more trips of arbitration if he doesn’t sign an extension or the new CBA doesn’t change anything. With another successful year next year, his cost will rise a lot higher. It’s worth it though, and yes the team will offer Kelly a contract.

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Caleb Smith, Diamondbacks RP/SP

Caleb Smith has been a mixed bag for the team so far. It’s been a roller-coaster ride for him, the team, and the fans. Originally acquired in 2020, from the Marlins, in the Starling Marte trade, he’s filled a few roles for the team. He has appeared as a SP, Long-reliver, Set-Up, and Match-up specialist out of the bullpen. Suffice to say, he’s best suited for coming out of the bullpen, despite the hit to the wallet it will cost him. Why? Well, I’ll discuss below.

Last off-season Caleb Smith agreed to a 1.465 MM dollar contract to avoid arbitration. This was that low due to his history of injuries, high-ERAs, high-HR rate, and high-walk rate. Entering into this year he had struggled pitching deep into games as a power-lefty SP who had the talent to strike out batters with ease, but also a penchant for walks and homers. Robbie Ray anyone? Alas,  this year proved to be more of the same, except with a twist.

While he did start the year as a starter, he ended up moving to the bullpen. Then, he went back to the rotation, only to end up back in the bullpen. This attributed to the fact he pitched in 45 games, started 13 of them, and finished 4 of them. He still pitched 113.2 innings.

He struggled immensely starting games, giving up hard and loud contact, walks, and just did not seem like a pitcher that was meant to start. His pitching speed would lessen while starting too. Then, when he started coming out of the bullpen, he pulled an Archie Bradley. He started pumping strikeouts, strikes in general, limiting contact, pitching multiple innings, and just being a left-handed bullpen ace.

This is shown when you look at his bullpen numbers: 3-1, 2.70 ERA, 32 games, 56.2 innings, 17 ERs, 6 HRs, 23 walks, 59 K’s, 1.147 WHIP, and a Opponent .615 OPS+. Those are amazing numbers and he needs to strictly be coming out of the bullpen and be our lefty-bullpen ace.

Due to his overall season numbers of 4-9, 45 games, 113.2 innings, 93 hits, 20 HRs, 63 walks, 124 K’s, 4.83 ERA, and 5.10 FIP, he’s unlikely to see much of a raise over his previous contract. Matt only predicts Caleb to get around 2.1 MM dollars for the 2022 season. Hopefully the team can come to terms before it goes to court as Caleb is scheduled for another go-round with arbitration next-off-season for the final. He’s under team control through 2023. Definitely expect the team to offer him a contract.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 25: Christian Walker #53 of the Arizona Diamondbacks makes a play on a ground ball at first base against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field on September 25, 2021 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 25: Christian Walker #53 of the Arizona Diamondbacks makes a play on a ground ball at first base against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field on September 25, 2021 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

Christian Walker, Diamondbacks 1B

The man who was tasked with replacing Paul Goldschmidt entering the 2019 season had a rough 2021 season. He did great in 2019 and 2020 hitting 29/7 HRs and 73/34 RBIs respectively. He showcased great patience at the plate, power, clutch hitting, and excellent fielding. He had a long path to the Majors after being drafted in 2012. He was forced to sit behind Chris Davis, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, and Paul Goldschimdt until he finally got his chance. He was handed the full-time first base gig as a 28-year old rookie. His perseverance paid off at least.

Now, he’s set to go through arbitration for the first time as a 30-year old. That’s IF the team offers him a contract, which is by no means a sure thing. He struggled with injuries all season, especially with an oblique strain that clearly affected his swing and batting. It’s no wonder then as to why he struggled.

Now, in the throws of a mini-rebuild in which the team wants to get younger and allow it’s young players to play more, Walker could find himself as the odd-man out. Of course, this is yet to be determined due to we don’t know what the Dbacks plan to do with Pavin Smith and Seth Beer. If the team feels that Seth needs to go back to the minors to start the year, and they like Pavin in right field, then Walker could get his job back.

And/or he could be a powerful bench bat to sell at the deadline. Either way, it’s an uphill battle for Walker to reclaim the starting first basemen’s job without a great spring. Of course, it’s not as if money is a worry as entering arbitration for the first time will limit how much he will get.

I hope Christian is brought back, especially if the DH is in the NL next year. He’s a great hitter, fielder, and teammate. He’s proven his power and worth. Additionally, it makes sense for the team to try to trade him his next deadline too. 2021 sucked for nearly the whole team, and at least for Walker, there’s a reason as to why. He hit .244, .315, .382, .696, 88 OPS+, 23 doubles, 1 triple,10 HRs, 46 RBIs, 38 walks, and 106 K’s.

Despite those obvious struggles, he was still a 0.6 WAR player. He’s projected to get 2.7 MM dollars due to his 71 doubles, 52 HRs, 162 RBIs, and 102 OPS+ in his career so far. That’s not an obscene amount, even for the “cheaper” Ken Kendrick. I’d expect him to get a contract. He’s under team control through 2024, if he’s offered a contract this winter.

As always,

May the Force be with You…

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