Analyzing the Diamondbacks-Guardians trade that netted Christian Walker replacement

Oct 18, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor (22) hits a two RBI double in the seventh inning against the New York Yankees during game four of the ALCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn Images
Oct 18, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor (22) hits a two RBI double in the seventh inning against the New York Yankees during game four of the ALCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn Images | David Dermer-Imagn Images

Just one day after losing first baseman Christian Walker to the Houston Astros, the Arizona Diamondbacks found his replacement, managing to save money and preserve their payroll for the foreseeable future.

ESPN's Jeff Passan reported earlier on Saturday that the Diamondbacks acquired Josh Naylor from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for right-hander Slade Cecconi and their Competitive Balance Round B (No. 72) overall.

Naylor, 27, hit .243 with a career-high 31 home runs in 2024, being named an All-Star for the first time in his career. He'll immediately slot in as the Diamondbacks first baseman and cleanup hitter. He's projected to earn $12 million in his final trip through arbitration before hitting the free agent market next winter.

Josh Naylor will replace Christian Walker at first base for the Diamondbacks

The nice thing about Naylor is not only is Arizona getting a power bat, but one without the typical swing-and-miss drawbacks. He struck out in just 16.6% of his plate appearances and had a walk rate of 9.2%. While there are some chase tendencies in his profile — his 32.2% chase rate ranks in just the 25th percentile amongst qualified hitters on Baseball Savant — he has shown the ability to get the bat on the ball.

In terms of quality of contact, while Naylor doesn't have as strong a profile as Walker, he's still well above the league average in both hard-hit rate and barrels. The big first baseman produced a hard-hit rate of 40.9% and barrel rate of 8.4% when making contact, ranking in the 55th and 54th percentile amongst qualified hitters in both categories.

The main question mark will be his defensive fit. He got mixed reviews on his glove work at first base, ranking at -6 defensive runs saved and 0 outs above average. While he isn't likely to keep the standard of elite defensive play the team has enjoyed at the position since 2013, he's not a butcher either.

Should Naylor continue to swing the bat well in 2025, the Diamondbacks will have the option of a qualifying offer after the season if they don't trade him at the deadline.

Diamondbacks surrender a draft pick and a former first-rounder in Josh Naylor trade

Right-hander Slade Cecconi is the big return. Cecconi had a chance to lock down a rotation spot, as the Diamondbacks dealt with various injuries, but struggled to a 6.66 ERA in 77 innings. Consistency had been a huge problem for the right-hander, who stumbled when facing a lineup multiple times through.

We'll have to wait and see if the Guardians continue to develop Cecconi as a starter or if they opt to convert him into a short-inning reliever. As a reliever, his fastball will be more in the 96-98 MPH range and he'll have to focus on using his slider and changeup to get hitters out. Cleveland has plenty of quality bullpen arms and Cecconi still has two options remaining, so they can focus on developing him as a starter in 2025 if they wanted.

The draft pick return will include the No. 72 overall pick. The Diamondbacks already have significant draft capital for 2025, getting the No. 29 pick for losing Walker to Houston, and will have four picks on the draft's first night. The No. 72 pick carried a $1.09 million bonus in 2024, which now goes to the Guardians.

All in all, this is a win for the Diamondbacks because they effectively replaced a very good first baseman, and the move allows them to remain in contention in a very tough NL West.

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