Diamondbacks first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith has an opportunity for a bigger role in 2025. After the team lost Joc Pederson to the Texas Rangers in free agency, Smith is set to become the left-handed part of the platoon at the designated hitter spot.
If this breakout prediction by MLB.com writer Thomas Harrington is true, then Arizona will be happy with that decision.
Harrington justifies the decision by citing Smith's .896 OPS for the season and his .395 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). Much of the power surge came in the final six weeks of the season, in which he hit six of his nine home runs. Three of those home runs came in their Sunday Night Baseball victory over the Astros on Sept. 8.
Smith, 28, was originally the Diamondbacks' first-round pick in the 2017 MLB Draft. The left-handed swinging first baseman has struggled to find a role early in his career, spending the last three seasons between Triple-A and the majors. The 2024 season showed signs of a breakthrough, as Smith's quality of contact improved.
According to his Statcast page, Smith ranked higher than the league average in most quality of contact metrics. His hard-hit rate surged to 44% and his barrel rate to 14.7%, suggesting a true power breakout. Not only did he showcase power in a small sample, he also struck out well below the major league average to go with a strong walk rate. The combination of contact, power, and patience makes him a great candidate to take over as the DH.
He'll be mainly facing right-handed pitchers in this role, as he saw them in 85.4% of his plate appearances in 2024. Arizona was great at creating matchups with their DH platoon, as Pederson also held the platoon advantage in 90.7% of his plate appearances.
Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen told MLB.com beat reporter Steve Gilbert that getting a right-handed bat was on his to-do list for the offseason. Projecting playing time for Smith, he should get somewhere near the 449 plate appearances that Pederson got in 2024 if he gets the nod.
If there is any staying power behind his late-season power surge, Smith should be a very effective DH. Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projects Smith to put up a .248/.333/.407 slash line with 13 home runs and a 105 OPS+ over 445 plate appearances for the 2025 season. The Diamondbacks will certainly be banking on more production out of their former first-round pick, who finally has an opportunity to shine.