Three top free agents the Arizona Diamondbacks should consider pursuing
The Arizona Diamondbacks should consider purusing these three free agents who are at the top of this year's class.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off an astounding season, one where they went from an 84-win regular season to winning the National League Pennant, and making their first World Series appearance since the 2001 season. While the Diamondbacks made it to baseball’s biggest stage, they shouldn’t rest with a second place finish. Now is the time for general manager Mike Hazen and co. to take action, and put some chips on the table.
The Diamondbacks have a few holes they need to fill this off-season. They’re not a perfect team, but they will have an opportunity to reinforce the roster. This year’s free agent class has it’s top options, but I want to identify three the D-Backs should at least consider going after.
Aaron Nola
The D-Backs could greatly use another starting pitcher behind the likes of Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, and Brandon Pfaadt. A fourth, quality option could be a major difference maker in the 2024 season and beyond. If the D-Backs want to go after one of the best options, I think Aaron Nola is a near perfect fit.
Nola had a down year for his standards, playing to a 4.46 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and 1.15 WHIP in 193.2 innings. Nola posted a quality 25.5% strikeout rate as well as a 5.7% walk rate, but home runs were his downfall as he allowed 1.49 dingers per nine innings. While this was a down year for Nola, there are positives that point to a better season.
The all-star right-hander had a 3.63 xFIP, 3.75 SIERA, and 83 DRA- (compared to a 101 ERA-). Some of his issues with home runs may also be remedied by leaving Citizens Bank Park. CBP is the fourth most home run friendly park over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Chase Field has been the fifth least HR friendly ballpark in MLB.
A valuable asset that Nola has is his sturdy workload. Nola has started at least 32 games each season since 2018 (excluding 2020). The fewest innings he has pitched since his breakout campaign in ‘18 is 180.2 frames. Even with his down year in 2023, he still racked up +3.9 fWAR. 2020 marks the only year since ‘18 that he has failed to reach the +3.0 fWAR mark, and that was only because the season was shortened to 60 games.
A rotation headlined by Gallen, Kelly, Nola, and Pfaadt has the potential to be one of the most formidable, but criminally underrated 1-4s in baseball right now. That’s three players who could conceivably receive Cy Young votes next year, and a fourth who has massive breakout potential in 2024.
Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito is more of a rebound option, but still one of the better names that will be a free agent. Giolito was a quality pitcher from 2019 through 2021, however he struggled in 2022. Giolito looked like he was on the path of rebound going into the 2023 all-star break, however after getting traded, he had some horrible starts, both with the LA Angels and Cleveland Guardians.
At the time the Chicago White Sox traded Gioltio, he owned a 3.79 ERA, 4.43 FIP, and 1.22 WHIP. While Giolito struck out over a quarter of the opponents he faced with a 25.8% K-rate and carried a respectable 8.3% walk rate, he had a 1.49 HR/9 rate. Giolito was then traded to the Angels, where struggled mightily down the stretch.
In the final 63.1 innings of the right-hander’s season, Giolito got rocked for a 6.96 ERA, 6.87 FIP, and 1.48 WHIP. While he still carried about the same K% at 25.4%, his walk rate shot up to 10.8%. However, the most worrying aspect was his 2.98 HR/9. However, despite allowing about three home runs per nine innings, there were some positives.
His opponent exit velocity dropped to 88.8 MPH, which is about league average. His home run to flyball ratio was 26.3%. That’s unsustainable in every way you spin it. No pitcher has ever had an HR/FB ratio over 23% in 120+ innings pitched in one season. This would all but certainly normalize over the course of a full year.
There were some other positives to note about Giolito’s season. After siting 93 MPH with the White Sox pre-trade deadline, he saw his fastball velo tick back up to his career average of 93.5 MPH. Gioltio’s swinging strike rate also went from 11.9% with the Sox to 12.8% with the Angels and Guardians.
While Giolito is a rebound candidate, he’s a pretty good bet to find his groove again. I wouldn’t be surprised if he contended for comeback player of the year next season. He’s more of a risk than Nola, but will cost less, and you could still be getting a quality pitcher.
Matt Chapman
This one is a bit bold, but the Diamondbacks need a third baseman. Sure, Ivan Melendez could be a solution at the hot corner, but he’s more than likely going to end up at first base. 2023 draftees Tommy Troy and Gino Groover could end up at third, but could also land at different positions. If the D-Backs want to fill third base for a handful of seasons, then they should consider Matt Chapman.
Chapman turned in a .240/.330/.424 triple slash with 17 home runs. He also had a .328 wOBA, and 110 wRC+. Chapman walked at a 10.4% rate, but struck out in 28.7% of his plate appearances. Chapman hasn’t had an MVP-caliber season with the bat since 2019. However, there is a good chance he can rediscover his offensive potential in 2024.
Chapman was in the 98th+ percentile of exit velocity (93.4 MPH, T-5th with J.D. Martinez), hard hit rate (56.4%, second to Aaron Judge), and barrel rate (17.1%, 5th best in baseball). Chapman could greatly use a change in approach. The third baseman has sort of gone full three-true-outcomes, and becoming a flyball-or-bust sort of hitter. In the first two years of his career, Chapman had a 15.4 degree launch angle, 22.8% strikeout rate, and 132 wRC+. Since then, Chapman’s average launch angle is up to 19.1 degrees, he is striking out 29.9% of the time, and has just a 110 wRC+.
Of course, Chapman’s ability to hit is just icing on the cake. He has been one of the best hot corner defenders for years now. This past season, Chapman added +12 defensive runs saved and +4 outs above average to an already impressive resume. Chapman took home the AL 3B Gold Glove, as he leads them all in DRS by a wide margin of seven runs, is second in UZR/150, and fourth in OAA.
Chapman will likely be the highest paid free agent on today’s list. But if the Diamondbacks want to solve third base now, and for a while, he’d definitely be a solid choice. He’d bring a potential middle of the order bat, as well as elite defense. Chapman would definitely be a game changer for the Snakes.