Three bold free agents the Arizona Diamondbacks should go all in on
The Arizona Diamondbacks should get bold this off-season, and pursue these three top free agents.
As the saying goes, fortune favors the bold. Teams who make deep playoff runs don’t get there by not making at least one or two bold decisions. Maybe that’s make the big trade, go after a big-time free agent, or promote a prospect early on into the season. With the Arizona Diamondbacks coming off an NL Pennant run, now might be the best time to splurge on the market and sign at least one bold free agent.
That’s the kind of free agent targets I want to look at today: ones that would be bold for the Diamondbacks. One or two big additions could be the difference between falling out of October in round one or making it back to the World Series and potentially winning it.
Rhys Hoskins
Right now, the Diamondbacks do not have a great answer at designated hitter. Maybe Ivan Melendez can solve that issue next year, or maybe Dominic Fletcher can fill the gap. But as of right now, MLB’s Diamondbacks depth chart currently does not list a player as the Diamondbacks’ DH. So why not go big and pursue Rhys Hoskins?
Hoskins missed all of 2023 due to an ACL tear. However, the last time he played, which was 2022, the first baseman was a very solid batter, slashing .246/.332/.462 with a .345 wOBA and 122 wRC+. His wRC+ in the four seasons prior to that was 123, so he was producing at about the same level despite posting an OPS below .800 for the first time in his career. Hoskins’ 10.7% walk rate was better than average but pales in comparison to his career average of 13.5%. He also struck out at a career-worst 25.1% rate.
2022 was a ‘down’ year, but only by Hoskins’ typically high standard. Hoskins looked to retake his position of first base for 2023, but an ACL tear in Spring Training brought his season to a standstill. Now, with the Phillies planning on using Bryce Harper at first base full-time and Kyle Schwarber at DH, it looks like they’ll move on from Hoskins.
Hoskins moving to DH full-time, at least in his first season back, may benefit him a lot. On top of coming back from an ACL tear, Hoskins was never that great defensively at first base. Throughout his career, Hoskins has had -7 defensive runs saved and -11 outs above average.
Hoskins is estimated to sign for two years at $36 million by MLB Trade Rumors, and the Athletic predicts he’ll sign for just one year at $12 million. That’s a pretty wide range of AAV for 2024. But a contract like MLBTR or the Athletic predicts wouldn’t block a line-up spot for Melendez or Gino Groover long term, assuming they develop properly and become productive big leaguers. Plus, it would give some added thump to the Diamondbacks’ line-up. Adding Hoskins to their roster would give them at least four guys (Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll) who could all hit 25+ home runs next year.
Shota Imanaga
Last year, the Diamondbacks saw six pitchers start 15+ games for them. The non-Zac Gallen/Merrill Kelly pitchers owned a combined around 5.50 ERA. Fixing the rotation beyond Gallen, Merrill, and Brandon Pfaadt (if he can continue his results from the second half and Postseason) are going to be key to the Diamondbacks’ success next year. One of the top free agents hasn’t even thrown a pitch in MLB because he’s spent his entire career in Japan, and that’s left-hander Shota Imanaga.
Imanata pitched 159.2 innings last year, working to a phenomenal 2.59 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 7.83 K:BB ratio. The southpaw had a walk rate of just 3.8% and paired that with an outstanding strikeout rate of 29.5%. For reference, there have only been 14 pitchers since the Expansion Era, which started in 1961, with a K:BB ratio of 7.80 or greater in 150+ innings in MLB. The only real knock one could make on Imanaga’s season is his slightly below-average 1.02 HR/9 rate. But that’s a more than manageable rate.
Imanaga isn’t a flamethrower and sits around 93-95 MPH, but the fastball plays up because of its ability to ride through the zone. His two breaking pitches include a curveball and a cutter-slider. Imanaga throws two off-speed offerings, which are a sinker and a splitter. During the World Baseball Classic, Imanga’s stuff+ ratings were well above average, with some bordering into elite territory. Along with good offerings, he can throw everything for strikes quite often and can paint the black with ease. You don’t get a walk rate below 5% on control alone. He hits his spots with consistency.
Most have Imanaga making something similar to Kodai Senga, a five-year/$75 million deal. MLB Trade Rumors is slightly more generous in their prediction, having him signing for six years at $85 million. Both predictions put him making around $16 million a year. For a team that wants to compete, that should be within their price range.
Aroldis Chapman
Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel are a solid high-leverage and late-inning duo, but the Diamondbacks lack quality depth or reliable high-leverage lefties. Andrew Saalfrank may be their best option, and he danced around eight walks in 5.2 Postseason innings. Joe Mantiply and Miguel Castro aren’t the most awe-inspiring duo, either. So let’s get a lefty who the D-Backs can slot into a late-inning/high-leverage role, and one of the best options out there for that is Aroldis Chapman.
The Cuban Missile had struggled in his last few seasons with the New York Yankees. But he rebounded with the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers. In 58.1 innings, Chapman owned a 3.08 ERA but 2.52 FIP and 1.25 WHIP. Chapman’s 14.5% walk rate is not great, but it wouldn’t be the first time he’s done well with a high walk rate, actually far from it. His career BB% is 12.4%. However, Chapman’s K% rebounded to 41.4%, the first time he’s had a 40%+ K-rate since 2018.
But the most promising part of Chapman’s season is that he regained his velocity. Chapman was averaging only 98.1 MPH from 2018 through 2022. In ‘22, he hit a career-low 97.5 MPH. Of course, that’s still some serious heat, but he saw that rebound to 99.1 MPH, the fastest he’s thrown since 2017. His max velocity of 103.8 MPH is the hardest he’s thrown since 2018.
Now, Chapman did struggle down the line. He allowed nine earned runs, 12 walks, and three home runs in his final 13.2 innings of the season. But that doesn’t negate the previous 45.1 innings, where he had a 2.18 ERA and 1.83 FIP. It also doesn’t erase the eight Postseason innings he pitched while allowing only two earned runs with six K’s, albeit five walks.
Chapman also had strong numbers under the hood. He was in the top 91st percentile of exit velocity (86.5 MPH) and 87th percentile of hard hit rate (33%), with a quality 47.7% ground ball rate. His expected numbers were also great, with a 2.59 xFIP, 2.95 SIERA, and 2.84 xERA.
As of right now, MLB Trade Rumors lists Chapman as their 33rd-best free agent, with him estimated to make $24 million over a two-year contract. For someone who can close games, work as a set-up man, and overall held opponents to just a .545 OPS in high-leverage situations, $12 million is a good price. He, along with Ginkel and Sewald, would make a formidable but underrated late-inning trio to face.