The Diamondbacks got the better of the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night by the score of 3-0 in the opening game of this three-game series, can they make it two in a row?
The Brewers will send out Corbin Burnes on Tuesday, a former Cy Young winner, who hasn't looked the part so far this season, allowing 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings. Now he faces a budding Diamondbacks lineup that has an National League Rookie of the Year candidate in Corbin Carroll playing high level baseball. Can the D-Backs knock around Burns like other teams have been able to?
Let's break down the odds and find the best bet:
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks odds, run line and total
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks prediction and pick
Burnes has fallen off a cliff to start the year and I'm not rushing to back him nor the Brewers offense that is performing at below big league averages this season against Arizona on the road.
Milwaukee is off to a 7-4 start this season, but are 22nd in on-base percentage while hitting just .225 as a unit. The team has feasted off some big outings at the plate, but overall the team is underwhelming as of group and I don't believe they will put up runs on the reliable Merrill Kelly.
Kelly is off his best full season in the bigs in which he started a big league high 33 games and posted a 3.37 ERA, and hasn't missed a beat in 2023, bolstering a 3.86 ERA through two starts.
If the Brewers offense struggles, Burnes isn't reliable enough to justify this price as a road favorite. Burnes has only generated six strikeouts in two starts and the D-Backs are striking out on less than 20% of at bats, the sixth lowest in baseball.
I like Arizona as a small home underdog as I believe the team is still being undervalued against a name brand like Burnes, who has been anything but his typical self. It's a small sample size, but look at what has gone on this season and bet the better team at + money.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.