We’ve seen two very different games through the first two of their three-game series. First, the St. Louis Cardinals took a 10-6 win, then the Arizona Diamondbacks responded by winning 3-1 yesterday. Today, it’ll be Jack Flaherty against Zac Gallen on the mound, so it might look a lot more like the former rather than the latter.
The Cardinals are 45-57 after that loss while the Diamondbacks are 55-47 and four games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. Flaherty is likely on the trade block for St. Louis and he is 7-6 with a 4.39 ERA in 19 starts this year. Zac Gallen has been even better at 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 21 starts.
Let’s take a look at the odds for the series finale and rubber match in Arizona today.
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks odds, run line and total
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks prediction and pick
Zac Gallen has been dominant. He has a 3.03 FIP and 135 strikeouts to 26 walks in 130.1 innings of work. He’s a very real National League Cy Young Award candidate, but he’s seeing a very real problem emerge. Gallen has allowed five home runs in four starts this month and 10 home runs in his last nine starts.
That is particularly bad news against the Cardinals who are third in OPS this month and second in runs scored across all of baseball. Nolan Arenado is the biggest reason with his 1.086 OPS this month along with six home runs. I wouldn’t be surprised if Arenado tags one off Gallen, but I have a hard time expecting a bad start from the Arizona ace. The Arizona bullpen taking over after Gallen leaves is a different story.
The Diamondbacks are 24th in bullpen ERA at 4.45 and in July it’s been even worse. They are 29th with a 6.54 ERA this month. St. Louis is 24th in July with a 5.40 ERA and has had a very bad bullpen all season long. The pitching matchup makes it look like this one is going to be a pitcher’s duel like the 3-1 Arizona win yesterday, but Flaherty hasn’t exactly been lights out and there’s a potential for plenty of runs to be scored in the late innings today.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change