Could Tommy Troy reach the Major Leagues in 2024?

Tommy Troy was the Arizona Diamondbacks' first-round pick in 2023 out of Stanford. The infielder was considered one of the best draft prospects, as MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 17th best player in the draft by MLB Pipeline and 12th by Baseball America. Troy is one of the team's best prospects and is a consensus top 100 prospect. But when can Diamondbacks fans see Troy reach the Major Leagues?

Troy was an outstanding hitter at Stanford for all three seasons he was there, but 2023 was his best by a mile. In 293 plate appearances, the right-handed batter hit .394/.478/.699 with a 1.177 OPS. He had the second-highest batting average and ranked in the top ten in both OBP and slugging percentage among PAC-12 batters. Troy was a threat to go yard and steal a base. He had 17 home runs with a .305 isolated slugging percentage, and he also was 17-for-20 in stolen base attempts. With 174 total bases, he led the PAC-12. He also showed both a good eye at the dish and strong bat-to-ball ability. He drew 35 walks for an 11.5% walk rate while striking out just 42 times for a K% of 14.3%.

Troy also has strong numbers in the Cape Cod League, one of America's most competitive wood-bat college summer leagues. He slashed .304/.373/.504 in 260 trips to the plate. He had an 18.1% strikeout rate, as well as a 7.7% walk rate. He continued to be a power/speed threat with a .200 isolated slugging percentage and 14 stolen bases. He was less successful overall as he got caught eight times, however.

Once Troy was in pro ball, he continued to be a very productive batter. He only saw 115 plate appearances for the D-Backs' Arizona Complex League affiliate and Hillsboro but hit .271/.374/.469. Power continued to be a part of his game with four homers and a .198 ISO. Meanwhile, he went nine-for-nine in stolen base attempts. Troy produced a quality 13.8% walk rate, but he struck out a little more than you'd like to see at 24.3%. But overall, he ended his first look against pro pitching with a .383 wOBA and 125 wRC+.

Troy's best tool is his hit tool. His quick and compact swing helps him make contact. Although Troy's stature isn't overly imposing, as he stands at 5'10"/200, he can generate decent exit velocity because of his quick bat. He's a quick runner, giving him a combination of above-average power and plus speed. However, his long-term position is still up for debate.

He saw playing time at a handful of different positions, including all four infield spots and left field during his amateur career. The only position Troy took up at the ACL and Hillsboro was shortstop. However, his arm and defensive skill will play better at either second base or third base. This could also determine when we see him in the big leagues.

I think Troy has a good shot at starting the year at Double-A Amarillo. He is 22 and one of baseball's best prospects. Double-A is a good place for Troy to show what he has. It's considered the largest step in minor league levels, and Troy will have the chance to show he can be the real deal with Amarillo.

So, let's say that Troy does well at Amarillo next year. When can we see him in the big leagues? It's still rare for a player to get drafted and then make their MLB debut the year after. But Troy has the chance to achieve this feat. They could give him a brief sample size of big-league action at the end of the year, akin to Jordan Lawlar last year. A September call-up for Troy could put him in a position to win the third base job in 2025. Eugenio Suarez is guaranteed control through 2024 but has a team option valued at $15 million for 2025. However, he also has a buyout at $2 million. If Troy performs well at Amarillo in 2024, does well in his September call-up, and Suarez struggles, he could position himself to take the position over.

Troy is set to be a major part of the Diamondbacks' future plans. He could force Mike Hazen's hand, move him quickly through the system, and promote him to the big leagues before the end of the 2024 season. It is very much a possibility, given Troy's talent.