A look at Baseball America’s projected Arizona Diamondbacks 2027 line-up and rotation
Baseball America recently released their projected Arizona Diamondbacks' starting line-up and rotation three seasons from now in 2027.
Baseball America has recently posted the projected lineups and rotations for teams three years from now in 2027. On Tuesday, the 21st, they posted on their Instagram what the Arizona Diamondbacks’ lineup and rotation may look like in 2027. Keep in mind that this is projected solely based on who is currently on the roster. They do not account for external factors, such as trade or free agency additions. Of course, if the Diamondbacks sign someone for three or more years, their projected lineup/rotation for ‘27 may look a little different.
Infield
There are no major surprises about who is projected to be the Diamondbacks’ infield by the year 2027. Starting behind the plate, they have Gabriel Moreno penciled in. After his strong 2023 season, Moreno has the backstop on lockdown for years to come. As of right now, Moreno won’t even be arbitration-eligible until after the 2025 season, so needless to say, he’ll definitely be around by ‘27.
Gino Groover is listed as the D-Backs’ first baseman. Groover was drafted out of NC State in the second round of the 2023 draft. Groover struck out less often than he drew a walk in his final year in college while also hitting for decent power. Groover made his way to High-A Ball by the end of the 2023 minor league season. While Groover has only played third base when taking the field thus far in his pro career, many project him to slide over to first base long-term.
The currently listed designated hitter of 2027, Ivan Melendez, may also factor into first base. The D-Back’s second-round pick of 2022, Melendez, is coming off a season where he went yard 30 times with a 139 wRC+. Melendez does strike out at a high rate, which makes his hit tool a risk. He’s also sort of a positionless defender. He’s split his time at first and third base in 2023, though, like Groover, he projects as more of a 1B. Could see a situation where the two split time at DH, 1B, and 3B.
Speaking of third base, the team’s most recent first-round pick, Tommy Troy, is penciled into the hot corner. Troy nearly batted .400 at Stanford, clocking in at .394, while showing off both good speed and power with 17 homers and stolen bases each. Troy also made it to High-A Hillsboro and had a respectable .791 OPS but struck out 26 times in 99 plate appearances. Troy projects to have a plus-hit tool with about average power and is a great runner. While Troy has only played shortstop as a pro, he moved all around the field in college.
Baseball America currently projects the Diamondbacks’ middle infield to consist of Jordan Lawlar at shortstop and Ketel Marte at second base. Lawlar is the D-Backs’ first-round pick in ‘21 and one of the best prospects in baseball right now. The infield prospect spent most of his season at Double-A but made it to Triple-A and even the big leagues. Lawlar did great in the minors, posting a 126 wRC+; however, the most promising aspect of his game is that he cut his K% down from 25.1% in ‘22 to just 20.6% this past season. Lawlar struggled mightily in his brief MLB call-up, albeit in a small sample size of 34 plate appearances. But it wouldn’t be a surprise if Lawlar became an all-star within the next three seasons.
Rounding out the infield, we have Marte. The veteran is the longest-tenured Diamondback and has cemented himself as one of the greatest Diamondbacks ever. After a strong regular season where he had a 126 wRC+ and 25 home runs, along with respectable defense at second base, Marte then went off in the playoffs. In 45 plate appearances combined between the NLDS and CS, the switch-hitter had 17 hits, including seven extra-base hits and a walk-off in Game Three of the CS. Marte took home the NLCS MVP after his strong performance. Marte has team control through 2028, so he should still be around by then.
Outfield
You could make about five unique and quality combinations of outfielders right now based on what the Snakes currently have, but this is what Baseball America currently projects. Out in right field, we have the 2023 Rookie of the Year winner, Corbin Carroll. Carroll had a historic rookie season, being the first rookie to swipe 50+ bases and hit 20+ home runs, finishing with 54 and 25, respectively. Overall, he had a 133 wRC+. Carroll split his time among all three outfield positions almost evenly, but right field was his best position.
Then, in center field, you have Druw Jones. The son of all-time Atlanta Braves great Andruw Jones, junior was drafted second overall in 2022. Jones’ first professional season did not go well. He was limited to just 173 plate appearances, struck out 26% of the time, and had a 92 wRC+. Jones, at the very least, walked 15% of the time, however. But Jones has the potential his father had: one of the best defenders in the game while consistently being among the best home run hitters. There are some questions about his hit tool, and while Andruw is a lazy comparison, that is what Druw’s ceiling is.
Finally, over in left field, Baseball America curiously pins Alek Thomas into the position. Thomas’ bat has yet to come around and has posted nearly identical numbers in two seasons now. Last year, he had a 74 wRC+, though, in his defense, he hit four home runs this Postseason. Thomas was a Gold Glove finalist after racking up +5 defensive runs saved and outs above average. Thomas’ bat will remain a question, though his defense should keep him around for a while. Plus, with a career 144 wRC+ at Triple-A, we may eventually see him turn things around.
Pitching Staff
Baseball America must predict that the Diamondbacks and Zac Gallen will eventually reach an agreement on an extension as he becomes a free agent after the 2025 season. I believe something will eventually get done, and Gallen will be heading the rotation in ‘27. Gallen has established himself as one of the best SPs in the game, finishing in the top five in Cy Young voting two years in a row now. Last year, he pitched 210 innings and owned a 3.47 ERA, 3.26 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP.
After Gallen, they list Brandon Pfaadt as the D-Backs’ next starting pitcher. The right-hander’s rookie season was unimpressive at best. He had a 5.72 ERA, 5.18 FIP, and 1.41 WHIP in 96 innings. He had about an average 22.3% K-rate and a strong 6.2% walk rate but struggled to limit the long ball with a 2.06 HR/9. The youngster, however, looked like an ace in the Postseason, pitching 22 innings, allowing just eight earned runs, posting a 26:5 K:BB ratio, and only letting three home runs leave the park. Pfaadt also entered 2023 as a consensus top 100 prospect.
The number three starter is listed as Tommy Henry. The left-hander pitched 89 innings last year, working to a solid 4.16 ERA, 4.88 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP. Henry missed a large portion of the season because of elbow troubles. Luckily, it doesn’t look like Tommy John surgery will be needed. MLB Trade Rumors reported in August that there was no structural damage when Henry was placed on the 60-day IL. Hopefully, we can see what the lefty can do in a full season in 2024.
The fourth starter, as of now, is Ryne Nelson. Nelson also struggled in his rookie year, with just a 5.31 ERA, 5.07 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP in 144 innings of work. The righty was a former second-round pick and didn’t look bad at Triple-A. At the very least, Nelson ended his year on a high note. He pitched 5.1 innings in one World Series game, allowing just one earned run via a home run while striking out six and allowing zero walks. Hopefully, Nelson can figure it out going forward.
Rounding out the rotation is Yu-Min Lin. One of the D-Backs’ best pitching prospects, Lin worked to a 3.86 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and 1.19 WHIP in 121.1 innings between High-A and Double-A last season. Lin is a soft-tossing lefty who only averages out around 90-91 MPH but has a strong array of secondary pitches. His curveball and slider both look like above-average offerings, and his splitter has plus potential. Lin is only 20 and won’t turn 21 until mid-July.
Closing games out is Kevin Ginkel. The right-handed reliever broke out to the tune of a 2.48 ERA, 2.86 FIP, and 0.98 WHIP in 65.1 innings. He also had a 50.3% ground ball rate. Ginkel was nearly untouchable in the playoffs, firing off 11.2 scoreless innings across October. Barring a trade or signing, Ginkel may have the closing role to himself next season. However, Ginkel also becomes a free agent before the 2027 season, so we shall see how contract negotiations play out in the future.
Notable Exclusions
The first two players who come to mind who aren’t on this list are first baseman Christian Walker and starting pitcher Merrill Kelly. Walker hit 30+ home runs for the second year in a row while being an elite defensive first baseman and owning an OPS of .830, a career-high. Kelly, meanwhile, had a 3.29 ERA and 3.85 FIP and was dominant in the 2023 playoffs.
Originally, I thought Baseball America left both off because they will hit free agency before ‘27. But they included other players who will also become free agents before that. It’s kind of odd they excluded these two, considering they’re cornerstones of the roster right now, while including other players who will also be free agents before we reach the year 2027.
Geraldo Perdomo was also left off the projected lineup. Perdomo had only two good months, that being April and June. In May and July-September, Perdomo owned an OPS below .700. Perdomo may rebound and force himself into future plans conversations, but as of right now, Baseball America likely projects him as a utility man.
Finally, there are a ton of other outfield prospects, including Jack Hurley, Dominic Fletcher, Jorge Barrosa, and A.J. Vukovich. You can only play three guys in the outfield at one time. Nobody in their right mind will leave Corbin Carroll off a projected future lineup for the D-Backs, and until he proves otherwise, Druw Jones isn't going to be left off any lists like this. The only one who could be pushed out is Alek Thomas, and that’s assuming his bat never comes around.
Either way, the line-up looks pretty decent. There's a lot of offensive and defensive upside here. However, it's pretty clear the pitching may need some work. Some guys may breakout, and there will be two more drafts from now and 2027 Opening Day. Still, I like what I see from this 2027 projected lineup and pitching staff.