Four Possible Trades For Carson Kelly
First, we have to look at the Diamondbacks and see what needs they have on the big league club. Obviously you try to get those assets in any trade you would make with any club. The biggest needs on the current big league club to me would be the 5th starter, Humberto Castellanos needs to be a long-relief man, 1 or, bullpen arms, which you could solve by getting the 5th starter and moving Humberto to the bullpen, and a good offensive first, third baseman.
I have multiple players I would trade from the current 40-man roster in order to get younger, reduce payroll ( to eventually go after a couple of key free agents this winter), and fill the voids on this team. I think the realistic goal for this season is to simply make the playoffs, while building toward winning the division and pushing for a World Series title in the next 3 years, while simultaneously keeping a young talented core, signing them early to cheaper long-term contracts and most importantly, building a team with a ten-year run where they make the playoffs 7 of those 10 years.
As I said in my last article, I never want to see a player get injured, but when Carson Kelly went down with an injury, they realized what they had in Jose Herrera as a capable backup. Then, Alek Thomas came up and put Dalton Varshow behind the plate, and Kelly now becomes a trade chip. So, what can the Diamondbacks get for a catcher who is average both behind and at the plate? Who hits .240 with 125 total bases, a 20% caught stealing rate, and a 7-year career with only 16 total errors?
The 1st team I think would entertain a trade for Kelly, would be the New York Mets. The Mets do have 3 catchers on their current 40-man roster Patrick Mazeika, Tomas Nido, and James McCann. One is batting .188 the second .213 and the final one .196. They need a catching upgrade and Carson would be that for the free-spending Met. But what do they have that they would be willing to trade away? Do any of those players match the needs of the Diamondbacks?
The Mets have a stable of starting pitching; deGrom, Scherzer, Bassitt, Carrasco, Walker, and Peterson. deGrom and Scherzer are both injured, but also on the mend and should be pitching for the big league club in the next 30-45 days. But, even with those six starters they still have Tylor Megill and Trevor Williams. I think the Diamondbacks could include a fringe prospect like AAA OF Dominic Fletcher or AA SS Jeison Guzman and get Tylor Megill. Or just do a 1-for-1 and get Trevor Williams. Neither of them are superstars, but either one of them could become a 4th or 5th starter or a long relief man out of the bullpen.
These two pitchers are very different in a Mets uniform. Megill is a strikeout pitcher but his peripheral numbers are not great. His ground ball percentage is lower than the league average while his exit velocity, hard-hit rates, BAbip and home run rate is higher than the league average. But the flip side is in his 2 years and 124.1 innings in the show he has struck out 136 while walking 36. Then you have Trevor who sports a lower-than-league average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and home run rate but he has only struck out 52 batters and walked 15 in 60 innings pitched. So it depends on what kind of pitcher you prefer. I would take the ASU graduate Trevor Williams.
Another National League team who has playoff aspirations and needs a little more at the catching position is the Milwaukee Brewers. So what do they have that may interest the Diamondbacks? I am not a scout by any means but when I research minor league players I look for a few specific things. I like it when nothing is handed to a ball player and they have to earn everything. And I look for someone who has a specific skill that they are well above average at. AA prospect Gabe Holt who is currently listed as a 2B/3B fits both of those criteria. As a lead-off hitter for Texas Tech, he was a .333 batter. He was not ranked among MLB Pipeline's Top 200 in the 2019 Draft Class. He was not a standout in the instructional lead in 2020 but in his first full minor league season, he hit .283/.403/.341 with 17 steals dividing time between A and AA. But his most important stat may be that he struck out 52 times and walked 68. That gave him the best K rate among all Milwaukee full-season players. As great as his speed and eye at the plate is, even though neither are prototypical third base traits, he has virtually no power, which is a typical 3rd baseman trait. Of his 102 hits last season only 18 of them went for extra bases. I like his upside, his make-up and his on-base plus speed combination, I would take a chance on him for Carson Kelly.
Those are two National League possibilities; now, let's look at two American League possibilities.
We took a look at two National League teams, now let's do the same with two American League teams. The Seattle Mariners have made a ton of moves to go from laughable to competitive. But, competitiveness has left them a few games short of the playoffs for the last few seasons. They have gotten good at getting younger and cheaper and now they have signed or traded for a few stars making them on the cusp of winning their division. They have improved in the infield by signing Torres and Suarez. Then they got Winker and their new sensation Rodriquez. They even bolstered their rotation by bringing in Robbie Ray. But the one place they have not improved is the catching position. Their best offensive catcher, Tom Murphy, has a dislocated left shoulder and is out until sometime in July. He did start the season off well hitting .303 in his first 33 at-bats, but he is a lifetime .235 hitter, and that included 4 years of hitting in Colorado with the Rockies. Currently, the Mariners' number one catcher is Cal Raleigh and he is batting .152. But, do they have a player who would match what the Diamondbacks need?
Follow me with this one before you get mad and move on to the fourth possibility. There is a pitcher toiling in the Mariners farm system who was a "can't miss" prospect only a few years ago that I would like to get with Diamondbacks pitching coach Brent Stromb. He was taken in the 1st round of the 2014 draft by a team in the Cleveland Guardians (Indians back then) that has a reputation for spotting good pitching talent. Unfortunately, he is not doing exceptionally well at AAA Tacoma. He is 1-4 with a 6.26 ERA in 23 innings. But he still has struck out 26 batters while walking only 8. Plus, because he is not off to a great start, I think the Mariners would be more likely to cut ties with him. His name is Justus Sheffield, a left-handed strike-thrower who is starting in AAA but I would make him a long left-handed reliever out of the Arizona bullpen. Overall he has spent parts of 5 seasons in the show, the first with the Yankees in 2018 and the next four with Seattle after he was part of the return for James Paxton. His overall record is 11-12 with a 5.43 ERA, 150 strikes, and 86 walks. Also, his ground ball percentage for his career is over 6% higher than the MLB average, and his fly ball percentage is roughly 5% under the MLB average. I know it is a cliche, but I think he is an excellent "change of scenery" guy.
Lastly, I am wondering if the Diamondbacks can capitalize on a perfect storm with the New York Yankees. According to multiple reports, Miguel Andujar has asked the Yankees to trade him after he was sent down to AAA on June 4th. He looked at one time to figure prominently in the Yankees' future after coming in 2nd for the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year voting. But, since the start of the 2019 season, Andujar has played in pinstripes only 90 times. In the Diamondback's favor is his .234/.260/.329 slash line in sporadic playing time over 319 plate appearances from 2019-22. Miguel is under team control until the 2024 season earning a modest $1.3MM this season, his first year of arbitration.
Would the Yankees want Carson Kelly? Well, the Yankees' primary 2 catchers, Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka combined are providing New York with the following offensive slash line from behind the plate; .222/.275/.341. The Diamondbacks may have to throw in another marginal prospect to get the deal completed. But, I would do it. I would put him at 3rd base and hope his offensive prowess would outweigh his shortcomings defensively at 3rd base. He is a career .277 hitter with 55 doubles, and 34 home runs in 244 games. In 2018 he played 136 games at 3B with a .948 fielding percentage and 15 errors. He has since played left field and some first base, but the Diamondbacks are pretty settled at those 2 positions.
So there you have it, 4 possible and realistic trade proposals for Carson Kelly. You could get a 5th starter, a high-ceiling infield prospect, a left-handed reliever, or a guy who can hit but is a little short defensively. In the comments below let me know which trade is the best for the D-backs. Then challenge your friends to do the same.