Three free agents that could make the Arizona Diamondbacks National League West favorites

J.D. Martinez

The Diamondbacks need a designated hitter, and J.D. Martinez is one of the best out there. Martinez already had a stint with the Diamondbacks in 2017, where he hit 29 home runs in just 62 games. He then went on to play the next five seasons with the Boston Red Sox. His tenure with the BoSox didn’t come to a strong end, however. The Dodgers signed him to a one-year deal, and he has put up his best season since 2019.

In 479 plate appearances, Martinez batted .271/.321/.572 with a .369 wOBA and 139 wRC+. Martinez hit for an immense amount of power. His .301 isolated slugging percentage is his best rate since 2017, and for the second time in his career, he’s posted an ISO above .300. In total, he went yard 33 times. While his 7.1% walk rate and 31.1% strikeout rate were career worsts, there was an evident change in approach.

Martinez sold out for power and flyballs. His 93.4 MPH exit velocity, 54.8% hard-hit rate, and 17% barrel rate were the best in his career, and all ranked in the 98th percentile of batters. His 16.8-degree launch angle is also the second-highest of his career. But his 34.4% whiff rate was also a career-high, and not by a small margin (4.3% to be exact).

Signing Martinez would, of course, be a major addition to the Diamondbacks’ line-up. But more importantly, it steals one of the Dodgers’ best hitters from 2023. Martinez had the third-highest OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ on the Dodgers last season, trailing just Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman (min. 300 PAs). His home run total was the third highest on the Dodgers’ roster and surpassed Freeman by four. 

Adding Martinez would bring the Diamondbacks a 30+ home run hitter with the potential of posting an OPS approaching .900. Think of how many runs JDM would drive in if he hit behind Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. Heck, think how many home runs Martinez and Christian Walker could combine for. You could see them approach 70 combined dingers.

Seth Lugo

I know what you may think. Why do the Diamondbacks need another starting pitcher? Isn’t Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Brandon Pfaadt good enough? While I agree it’s good enough, we aren’t looking to settle for good enough. I want to see five, really good starting pitchers in this rotation next year. So, let’s get a little bold and still go after Seth Lugo.

The Diamondbacks were connected to Seth Lugo earlier this off-season. That may still be the case, even after signing E-Rod. Lugo was given his first chance to regularly start games in the majors by the San Diego Padres last season, and it went extremely well. Lugo pitched to a 3.57 ERA, 3.86 FIP, and 1.20 WHIP in 146.1 innings of work. His 23% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, and 1.17 HR/9 were all above league average as well.

Lugo’s underlying stats also painted a decent picture. He had a 3.76 xFIP, 3.97 SIERA, and a DRA- of 91, compared to an ERA- of 86. The only knock on Lugo is he wasn’t great at limiting hard contact. He had a 90.7 MPH exit velocity, 44.2% hard-hit rate, and 9.6% barrel rate, all of which were below the 25th percentile.

Imagine what that rotation would look like if the Diamondbacks added Seth Lugo. If Lugo is only your fifth-best starting pitcher, then you’re doing something right. That would give the Diamondbacks five starting pitchers who could all post an ERA well below 4.00. That’s not something many starting rotations can boast in MLB. Maybe only the Seattle Mariners, but definitely not anyone in the National League.

Jordan Hicks

The Diamondbacks could definitely use another higher-leverage reliever. Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald are a strong duo, but there’s very little behind them, at least ones you could trust to handle the 8th inning or even the 9th inning if need be. One of the best relievers on the free agent market is Jordan Hicks. Hicks is coming off a nice rebound campaign with the St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays.

In 65.2 innings, Hicks pitched to a 3.29 ERA, 3.22 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP. He had an outstanding 28.4% strikeout rate, the highest single-season rate of his career, with an HR/9 of just 0.55. Hicks’ 58.3% ground ball rate, which was the 9th highest GB% among qualified relievers last year. 

Hicks was also one of the best pitchers to induce soft contact last year. He owned an 86.7 MPH exit velocity, 35.7% hard-hit rate, and a barrel rate of 5.4%. The flamethrower was one of the few pitchers with a launch angle in the negatives. Only seven pitchers faced at least 250 batters with a launch angle below zero. Hicks sat at -0.1. The only thing Hicks did at a below-average level was prevent walks. He had an 11.8% walk rate, but it’s clear he was able to work around those free passes.

Hicks’ approach would thrive on the Diamondbacks. He spent a good chunk of the 2023 season on the Cardinals, who were a below-average defensive team by measure of both defensive runs saved and outs above average. The Blue Jays were one of the best defensive teams in baseball, but the D-Backs are right up there with them. The Snakes had +46 DRS with +31 OAA. 

A 7th-9th inning trio of Ginkel, Hicks, and Sewald, combined with the starting rotation, would make it very hard for any opponent to score runs. It would be one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball. Going from five or six strong innings from this group of starters to that group of relievers would be insane. The D-Backs need another reliever, and Hicks would be a great fit on their roster.