Three Arizona Diamondbacks players that won't be on the Opening Day roster
These three Arizona Diamondbacks players will likely not be on the team's Opening Day roster.
Jose Herrera
Jose Herrera has served as the Diamondbacks’ backup catcher for the last two seasons. However, he has hit rather poorly with mediocre defense in both years. Last season, Herrera collected 120 plate appearances, slashing .208/.396/.257. He has yet to hit his first Major League home run, and only five of his 21 hits from last year went for extra bases. Herrera drew a walk in 10.8% of his plate appearances but also struck out at a below-average 25% of the time.
If Herrera’s bat was the only issue, then he’d be a perfectly fine secondary catcher. But his glove was atrocious in 2023. Herrera was worth -6 defensive runs saved with -6.1 framing runs. He did have an outstanding 1.92-second pop time, but his arm was slightly sub-par, as his throws averaged 81.4 MPH. In terms of blocking, he was about average and allowed three passed balls.
For most backup catchers, you’re not expecting any offensive value. Catchers across baseball last year averaged a sub-.700 OPS. But you still want someone who can field his position with grace behind the dish. Catching is a defense-first position.
Herrera set an extremely low bar that I think someone else will take over the second catcher role. The Diamondbacks have signed both Tucker Barnhart and Ronaldo Hernandez to minor league contracts with Spring Training invites this off-season. Herrera isn’t guaranteed a spot anyway because he still has a minor league option remaining.
Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy was a standout rookie in 2022, finishing 4th in ROY voting after batting .293/.342/.427 with a 117 wRC+ through 354 plate appearances. McCarthy had some worrying underlying factors to his rookie campaign, and those caught up to him in 2023 with few signs of improvement.
McCarthy slashed just .243/.318/.326 through 312 plate appearances. While his walk rate rose from 6.5% to 8.3% and his K% dropped from 21.5% to 19.9%, McCarthy’s power production took a massive hit. His ISO went from .143 to .083, the 8th lowest among all batters in ‘23 with at least 300 plate appearances. McCarthy’s xwOBA was .298 in his rookie season, and it barely budged in 2023 to just .293.
His defense was solid, however. He had +1 defensive run saved and +1 out above average. Most of his playing time was in right field, where he had +3 DRS. He also played nearly 100 innings in center where he had -2 DRS, but +1 OAA. While most of McCarthy’s innings in the field came from right field, his arm does not belong there. His outfield throws averaged just 80.2 MPH, which ranked in the 21st percentile. At the very least, he has plenty of range, with his sprint speed averaging 29.9 feet/second (top 98th percentile).
The only major advantage McCarthy brings over Dominic Fletcher is speed. Fletcher did well last year in his brief MLB sample size. Even if the D-Backs want a more speed-focused outfielder, then they may be better off going with Jorge Barrosa, who is part of the team’s 40-man roster.
Pavin Smith
Former first-round pick Pavin Smith has seen his production steadily go downward since his 2021 rookie season. That year, he had a 98 wRC+, followed by just an 88 wRC+, then even lower in 2023. Because of that, Smith has an unlikely chance of making the D-Backs’ Opening Day roster.
Smith batted just .188/.317/.325 with a .293 wOBA and 81 wRC+ through 228 plate appearances. There were a few positives, like his 15.4% walk rate and sub-20% K% (19.7%), but he hit for little power, clocking in with a .137 isolated slugging percentage. Smith did have a .209 batting average on balls in play, suggesting some bad batted ball luck. His .329 xwOBA also suggests some improvement in the future. But Smith has yet to produce above-average numbers with the bat.
But Smith’s defense has not garnered many positive reviews either. He only played 65 innings at first base but had -3 defensive runs saved and -4 outs above average. He played 173 more innings in the outfield, where he had -3 DRS and -2 OAA. Smith has never graded out as an average defensive outfielder.
These are two positions the Diamondbacks have alternative options at. Christian Walker averages about 90% of games played a season since 2019, which is 150 games a year. Even if the D-Backs want a backup 1B, the D-Backs have Emmanuel Rivera, who can serve a similar role but does not have a minor league option remaining. The outfield is secured by Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Alek Thomas, and Corbin Carroll from left to right field. They have better alternatives, too, with the aforementioned McCarthy, Barrosa, and Fletcher.
Smith has a minor league option remaining, which lets the D-Backs send him back to the minor leagues. Because of that, he’s already starting his battle in Spring Training on the back foot. Given his primary positions are occupied by better players, it’s going to be extremely difficult to see Pavin getting a path to the Opening Day roster.