Previewing the Arizona Diamondbacks’ potential 2024 Opening Day line-up
Opening Day is just around the corner, so let's look at what the Arizona Diamondbacks' line-up coul dlook like.
Catcher
Gabriel Moreno
Gabriel Moreno was acquired last off-season alongside Lourdes Gurriel Jr. from the Toronto Blue Jays. Moreno was formerly one of the best prospects in all of baseball, ranking as high as a top ten prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Moreno got his first shot at regular playing time in 2023 and did not disappoint.
The young backstop hit .284/.339/.4408 with a .325 wOBA, and 103 wRC+ through 380 plate appearances. Although Moreno did not hit for much power with just seven home runs and a .123 isolated slugging percentage, he did have a respectable 7.6% walk rate and 19.7% strikeout rate. On top of solid offense, he provided a ton of value with his defense.
Moreno racked up +20 defensive runs saved. He was also outstanding at blocking pitches in the dirt with +10 blocking runs, the fifth most among all catchers. Moreno’s throws from the crouch averaged out at 82 MPH, which was below average, but his 1.9 second poptime made up for it. His accurate arm helped him lead MLB in caught stealing rate at 39%. The only negative to Moreno’s game was his framing at -3.9 framing runs.
Moreno is only entering his age-24 season and just turned 24 in early February. He played great in the second half of last year, batting over .300 with an OPS approaching .900. 2023 was only a taste of things to come. By the end of the year, I would not be surprised if Moreno was in contention as the best catcher in the National League.
First Base
Christian Walker
Christian Walker has silently become one of the best first basemen in baseball. Since his 2019 breakout season, only five first basemen have more fWAR than Walker’s +12.5. They are Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Max Muncy, and Pete Alonso. Last year Walker had an outstanding season at the plate and an even better year with his glove.
Walker slashed .258/.333/.497 with a .351 wOBA, and 120 wRC+. The first baseman provided a ton of pop with 33 home runs, the second 30+ homer campaign in a row. But his .239 ISO was a career best. Walker also struck out less than 20% of the time with a 19.2% K% and paired that with a solid 9.4% walk rate.
Walker has been one of the best defensive first basemen in the game for the last few seasons. Last year, he won his second consecutive Gold Glove after having +9 DRS and +12 OAA. Only one other 1B came within five OAA of Walker last year, and that was Anthony Rizzo at +7. He also has the most OAA by a first baseman in the Statcast era at +44, giving him a large margin of 14 outs compared to second place.
Walker is easily the second best first baseman in D-Backs’ history behind Paul Goldschmidt. Look for him to continue to solidify that title this season. He’s a potential 30+ home run threat who will be the best defender at his position. Not many first basemen have the offensive and defensive upside that Walker brings.
Second Base
Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte is one of the best second basemen in the game and is coming off a great Postseason performance. The switch-hitter provides some power, gets on base, and is a solid defender up the middle. 2023 was his best season since his 2019 breakout season. He stayed healthy and productive the entire season, leading to a +4.2 fWAR campaign.
Marte stepped to the plate 650 times, slashing .276/.353/.485 with 25 round-trippers. Marte had a healthy 10.9% walk rate and an even better 16.8% strikeout rate. Overall, he had a .361 wOBA, and 127 wRC+, making him one of the best hitters at his position. Among 2Bs with 500+ PAs last season, Marte ranked second in wRC+, wOBA, as well as third in OPS, and ISO.
Defensively, Marte was good enough with +2 DRS and +1 OAA. In Marte’s defense, this was the first time he logged more than 810 innings at the keystone since his 2018 season. This past season, he was able to play second base for 1210.1 innings, the 6th most by any other 2B in baseball last year.
Marte is a consistently quality hitter, and I think 2023 is more or less what you can expect from him in the future. He arguably deserved the Silver Slugger over Luis Arraez, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he does win it next year. He's already one of the best Diamondbacks in franchise history and could only solidify that title with another quality season.
Third Base
Eugenio Suarez
One of the Diamondbacks’ multiple off-season acquisitions was third baseman Eugenio Suarez from the Seattle Mariners. The veteran third baseman will provide the Snakes some pop at the hot corner as well as some solid defense. Suarez also solves the team’s problem of having an inconsistent answer at the hot corner.
Suarez played in all 162 games last year, batting .232/.323/.391 with a .313 wOBA, and 102 wRC+. He went yard 22 times, which marks the seventh straight non-COVID shortened season he hit at least 20 bombs. Suarez struck out over 30% of the time with a 30.8% K%, but offset it with a quality 10.1% BB%. Although this was a step backwards for Suarez compared to his 2022 campaign, there are some promising factors.
Suarez had a quality 90.3 MPH exit velocity and 43% hard hit rate, both of which were above the 60th percentile. But even better was his 13.2% barrel rate, coming in the 87th percentile of batters. Suarez had an xSLG% above .400 at .413, as well as a better xwOBA at .324. Both point to some improvement in 2024. For what it’s worth, he currently has a .611 SLG% in Spring Training.
While Suarez was never considered a poor defensive third baseman, 2023 was his best season with the leather in his career. He had -2 DRS, but +11 outs above average. Suarez was tied for the third most OAA among third basemen. He, along with Manny Machado and Ryan McMahon both had +11 OAA. Only Maikel Garcia and Ke’Bryan Hayes had a higher OAA count than Suarez.
Suarez has averaged about +3.6 fWAR the last two seasons. He’s a guaranteed 20 home run threat with above average offense, and average defense, at the very least. He is also a very steady option as he’s played about 94% of his total possible games over the last three seasons. If Suarez plays anything like he has the last two seasons, he’ll be the first +3.0 fWAR third basemen the Diamondbacks have had since Jake Lamb in 2016.
Shortstop
Geraldo Perdomo
After a horrible rookie season in 2022, Geraldo Perdomo got another chance at big league playing time, and it was a very roller coaster year. Although he showed some promise in the first half of the year, he struggled greatly down the line in the second half. But he was a solid defensive shortstop, and will get another crack at it in 2024.
Perdomo ended the 81st game of the season batting .296/.398/.451 with a .371 wOBA, and 134 wRC+. Perdomo was an on-base machine and had the 9th highest OBP among batters with at least 241 plate appearances (Perdomo had 241 at this point). That was higher than Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez. On top of having a strong batting average, he had a 13.3% walk rate. Plus he did not strike out often with a 17% K%.
However, after this point in the season, Perdomo fell off a cliff, slashing .197/.310/.269 with a .269 wOBA, and 65 wRC+. While Perdomo’s 12.6% walk rate and 17.7% strikeout rate were similar to his first half rates, his power dipped significantly as he went from a .155 ISO to just .072 in the second half of the year. His batting average on balls in play also dropped by nearly 100 points from .348 to .244.
What Perdomo to expect in 2024 is a massive question mark. He was in the 5th percentile or lower in exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel rate, as well as all of Baseball Savant’s expected metrics. He is one of the few batters in the Statcast era to have a barrel rate under 1% in a full season. Defensively, Perdomo did provide a solid glove with only -3 DRS but +2 OAA. UZR/150 was also favorable to Perdomo at +4.3.
Perdomo ended the year with a .353 OBP, 99 wRC+, and +2.7 fWAR. If he can replicate that, he’ll be a valuable member of the Diamondbacks’ infield. But with such a steep decline in the second half, it’s far from a guaranteed. Perdomo’s seat could also be getting a little warm with Jordan Lawlar on the horizon. We shall see how Perdomo can perform in 2024: will we get the first half version of him, the second half version, or somewhere in the middle?
Left Field
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. arrived in Arizona alongside Moreno last off-season. At the time, Gurriel Jr. was a rental on the last year of his contract. After the 2023 campaign, Gurriel Jr. became a free agent, but only for a short amount of time. The two sides agreed upon a three-year, $42 million deal to bring the left fielder back into the fold for the 2024 campaign and beyond.
Gurriel Jr. hit .261/.309/.463 last season with a .329 wOBA, and 106 wRC+. Although it was his worst season since his rookie year in 2018, there were positives about his campaign. He hit a career high 24 home runs with the second best K% of his career at 17.4%. It also is the fifth season in a row he has had a wRC+ above 100.
But he had the best year of his career with the glove. He racked up +14 DRS in left field, the first time he ever surpassed a half-dozen DRS. Only 11 outfielders last year reached the double-digits. OAA was slightly less bullish, but +1 is still a career best for him. Prior to 2023, he had never posted an above average OAA in left field.
The Diamondbacks could have the best defensive outfield in the game if Gurriel can look anything like he did last year in left field. Gurriel Jr. is consistently a solid, above average hitter who is coming off a career year defensively. Hopefully, he can continue that trend in 2024, and for the rest of his new contract.
Center Field
Alek Thomas
A former second round pick, Alek Thomas ascended through the Diamondbacks’ system and made his debut in 2021. He has since become the team’s primary center fielder over the last two seasons, providing great defense, but poor hitting. 2024 could be a make or break campaign for Thomas.
Last season, Thomas batted just .230/.273/.374 with a .278 wOBA, and 71 wRC+. Thomas had an above average 21.4% strikeout rate as well as upped his isolated slugging percentage to .144. But he still provided below average power overall, and drew walks less than 5% of the time. This marks two straight seasons he has posted a wRC+ below 75.
Thomas showed off some power potential. He increased his exit velocity from 87.4 MPH to 88.9 MPH as well as his hard hit rate from 34.6% to 41.6%. However, even though he’s hitting the ball harder, he still struggles to lift the ball. He is still below the 20th percentile of barrel rate and the 5th highest ground ball rate among batters with 400+ plate appearances.
Although Thomas was not a great hitter last year, he was a great fielder. Thomas was a Gold Glove finalist after racking up +5 DRS and +5 OAA in center field. He ranked third among National League center fielders in DRS and in OAA. The only knock on his defensive game is his arm strength. It’s about league average as his throws averaged 85.3 MPH, but that will play from center field.
Thomas will likely get another chance at center field. If he can start lifting the ball, he could be a productive hitter with some pop. But the D-Backs have a handful of up and coming outfield prospects that could overtake Thomas if he can’t start hitting more.
Right Field
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll won the first Rookie of the Year in Arizona Diamondbacks franchise history. He had a historic campaign in 2023 and is looking to follow that up with another strong campaign. If he can replicate his rookie season, Carroll won’t just be the Diamondbacks’ best position player, but one of the best position players in the league.
Carroll batted .285/.362/.506. Both his 8.8% walk rate and 19.4% strikeout rate were slightly above average. But Carroll provided a dynamic combination of power and speed that MLB has never seen from a rookie, quite literally. With 25 home runs and 54 steals, making him the first 20/50 rookie ever. He had a .370 wOBA and 133 wRC+, both of which were top 15 in baseball.
Carroll spent time in all three outfield positions. He had exactly 481.1 innings in both left and right field with 304 more frames in center. With Gurriel Jr. back into the fold and Thomas in center, Carroll will likely see most of his time in right field. Right was his best position defensively with +1 defensive runs saved, +2 outs above average, and +19.9 UZR/150.
It’s going to be fun to watch Carroll’s encore in 2024. He’s one of the most electric players in baseball and a true five-tool threat. It would not be shocking if Carroll became an MVP finalist at the end of the season.
Designated Hitter
Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk
The Diamondbacks look like they’ll have a platoon at designated hitter. They signed a pair of DH/OF options this past off-season in veterans Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. They both complement each other’s strengths and weaknesses very well and allow the D-Backs to play match-ups.
Pederson will likely start when there is a right-hander on the mound. Last year, he hit .241/.351/.435 with a .337 wOBA, and 115 wRC+ when facing opposite handed pitching. This was actually a down season for him as he had a .894 OPS, .380 wOBA, and 151 wRC+ in 2022 against right-handed pitching. It’s also the third lowest single wRC+ he has posted against RHP in his career. But even if he hits to this level, he’ll be a nice complement to Grichuk.
Grichuk, a right-handed batter, slashed .328/.388/.607 with a .415 wOBA, and 155 wRC+ against Southpaws. Overall, he was one of the best hitters in baseball when facing lefties. He ranked 9th in OPS, wOBA, and 12th in wRC+ among batters with at least 130 plate appearances vs LHP. On top of that, he only had a 12.7% strikeout rate and .279 isolated slugging percentage, both of which were top 20 among batters vs LHP.
Between Pederson’s numbers vs RHP and Grichuk’s numbers vs LHP, you get a batter with a .265/.361/.483 with 22 home runs in 507 combined plate appearances. That rate of production is similar to that of Triston Casas or Isaac Parades last season. If that’s the kind of production the Diamondbacks can get out of a Pederson vs RHP and Grichuk vs LHP platoon, they won’t regret going after J.D. Martinez or Jorge Soler.