Three Arizona Diamondbacks who could be Rookie of the Year contenders next year

Dominic Fletcher

Dominic Fletcher has the most Major League playing time of any Diamondback rookie we will look at today. He appeared in 28 MLB games with 102 plate appearances last season. But Fletcher has an upper hand on the third and final outfield spot as of right now, and I doubt many fans would object to him landing a starting spot to open next season.

He hit .301/.350/.441 during this small sample size with a .340 wOBA and 113 wRC+. Fletcher’s 21.6% strikeout rate was slightly better than the league average but had a mediocre 6.9% walk rate. He also only hit two home runs with a sub-par .140 isolated slugging percentage.

Fletcher spent most of his season at Triple-A Reno, where he hit .291/.399/.500. His 12.6% walk rate looks good on paper but was roughly league average because of the new implementation of the ABS system. However, his 18.6% strikeout rate was significantly better than the average 21.8% K-rate in the PCL. The PCL is extremely hitter-friendly, and that’s putting it mildly, but his .209 ISO was again better than average.

Even though Fletcher only logged 219 innings in the outfield, he showed off some impressive defense. He racked up +4 defensive runs saved and +2 outs above average. Although he registered a below-average sprint speed, he made up for it with a strong arm. He was in the 71st percentile of arm strength last season.

Fletcher may not be the Diamondbacks’ best prospect, and he only hit and fielded well in less than 30 games. But I think he deserves a second look. If he hit and fielded anything like he did last year, not only would he receive ROY votes, but he’d even be a potential finalist.

Jordan Lawlar

I’m sure I’m not the only person who thinks Jordan Lawlar could be a Rookie of the Year contender next season. The shortstop is one of the best prospects in baseball. FanGraphs, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline each rank Lawlar in the top ten on their top 100 prospects list. Lawlar got a brief taste of MLB pitching last season but should get an extended look in 2024.

Lawlar spent most of the 2023 campaign at Double-A with a 16-game cameo at Triple-A mixed in too. Between the two levels, Lawlar had a .278/.378/.496 triple-slash. He also owned a .389 wOBA and 129 wRC+. He was a major speed/power threat, who went yard 20 times with a .218 isolated slugging percentage and also stole 36 bases in 41 attempts. These are all great numbers, but we haven’t even discussed the most promising aspect of Lawlar’s season.

There was concern heading into the 2023 season as to how Lawlar’s hit tool would develop. While he hit over .300 in 2022, he also struck out in about a quarter of his plate appearances. It was even worse in the second half of the year, as he had a 27.8% K-rate after the All-Star break. But Lawlar lowered his strikeout rate to just 20.6% last year. Unlike in 2022, he got better as the season went on and had a sub-20% K-rate in the second half (17.8%, to be exact). Plus, he had a respectable 11.4% walk rate.

Lawlar only appeared in 14 big league games and struck out 11 times with just four singles in 34 total plate appearances. His defense looked great, however, as he posted +1 DRS and +2 OAA in less than 100 innings at shortstop. He projects as a great defensive shortstop with 30/30 potential.

If the Diamondbacks gave Lawlar the starting shortstop role early into the year, there’s definitely the possibility he could win Rookie of the Year. At the very least, he has the potential to do so. It will be fun to see Lawlar get an extended look next season.

Jorge Barrosa

Jorge Barrosa could enter Spring Training looking to secure one of the starting outfield spots. The speedy outfielder hit well at Triple-A, even though he was at the PCL. He showed off his great hit tool, as well as good plate discipline, getting on base and using his speed to swipe a handful of bases.

In 502 plate appearances, Barrosa hit .274/.3394/.456 with a .385 wOBA and 110 wRC+. Barrosa nearly matched his 16.3% strikeout rate with a 15.9% walk rate. His .182 isolated slugging percentage was a sizable 22-point uptick from his 2022 campaign. However, keep in mind that’s about the league average. Overall, he’s hit for about a league-average amount of power across the last two seasons.

Barrosa could win a Gold Glove next season. He’s the best non-Druw Jones defender in the system and one of the fastest runners in the system. Lawlar may be the only one faster than him, who registered the tenth-highest sprint speed in baseball last season during his brief MLB stint. MLB Pipeline puts his glove as a 70-grade item. He doesn’t have a cannon on his right shoulder, but he can make throws from center field without any trouble.

Barrosa rarely strikes out, and 2023 was not an outlier. His minor league career K% is just 15.8%. At the very least, it’s a plus part of his game. Barrosa projects similarly to Ender Inciarte, with little power but Gold Glove potential, great baserunning, and the potential to hit .300 consistently. If the Diamondbacks wanted to have the rangyest and best defensive outfield, starting Jorge Barrosa would be the best option. Even though Fletcher may have the inside track, the D-Backs did add Barrosa to the 40-man roster.