Three targets the Arizona Diamondbacks should heavily consider pursuing
The Arizona Diamondbacks should consider pursuing these three players during the upcoming winter meetings.
The Arizona Diamondbacks need to make this off-season an important one. After coming off a National League pennant run, they need to show that 2023 was no fluke. Even though they made it to MLB’s biggest stage, you have to remember they still only won 84 games and snuck into the final Wild Card spot by one game.
The Diamondbacks have already made one notable trade, acquiring veteran power-hitting third baseman Eugenio Suarez from the Seattle Mariners, but the Snakes should not be done making moves. With the Winter Meetings approaching, who are some potential trade candidates the Diamondbacks should heavily consider pursuing?
Randy Arozarena
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hit free agency after the 2023 season concluded. While the Diamondbacks could fill the void by promoting one of their top prospects, they could go after a proven option, and one of the best, if not the best, outfielder who will at least get some calls is Tampa Bay Rays’ left fielder Randy Arozarena.
Arozarena turned in his third straight quality campaign. In 654 plate appearances, Arozenera batted .254/.364/.425 with a .347 wOBA and 126 wRC+. The outfielder went yard 23 times with 22 stolen bases. Arozenera cut his K% down to 23.9% while his walk rate saw an uptick to 12.4%, both of which were career bests for him. Arozarena is the definition of consistent. He has posted a wRC+ between 124 and 127 through his three seasons. This also marks the third consecutive season he has slammed at least 20 homers with 20 or more stolen bases.
But even though he’s three years into his MLB career, he could continue to improve next year. Arozarena's 91.7 MPH exit velocity, 48% hard-hit rate, and 11.3% barrel rate were career bests by a mile. He clocked in with an xwOBA of .352, the first time he’s accomplished an above-average expected weighted on-base average in his career. He hit far fewer ground balls and many more flyballs and line drives.
His defense, however, is a mixed bag. In the past, he has typically graded out around average to slightly above average, but he had his worst season defensively last year. He clocked in with -6 outs above average with a -1.4 UZR/150. Defensive runs saved was more bullish on his defensive work at +4 runs, but he’s not going to win any Gold Gloves. Still, he’s playable and isn’t going to be a major detriment to an outfield defense, especially one covered by Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll.
It’s not going to be cheap to acquire Arozarena. He is controlled via arbitration for three more seasons and is projected to make less than $10 million in 2024. But you’re not going to find anyone more steady than Randy. You’re guaranteed 650 plate appearances, a 20/20 season, and a wRC+ of around 125. It may cost a pretty penny (or, in this case, an appealing prospect), but it would be worth it for the Diamondbacks.
Dylan Cease
The Diamondbacks are in need of at least one more starting pitcher if not two. Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen are a strong 1-2 punch, and the D-Backs will hope that Brandon Pfaadt can carry his late-season improvements and Postseason success into the 2024 season. But after that, it’s a toss-up as to who will get the last two spots. Why not fill that with a potential high-quality option in Dylan Cease?
After finishing second in Cy Young voting in 2022, Cease had a lot of expectations for the 2023 season. However, he failed to live up to them, as he pitched to just a 4.58 ERA, 3.72 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP in 177 innings of work. His 27.8% strikeout rate was still a healthy remark but a step down from the 31.1% rate he posted in ‘21-’22. His 10.1% walk rate and 0.97 HR/9 are both about what you’d expect from him.
Cease gave up much more hard contact in 2023 than in 2022. Opponents upped their hard-hit rate from just 31.2% in ’22 to 41.5% this past year. Meanwhile, their exit velocity jumped from 86.8 MPH to 90 MPH. The one thing that didn’t change drastically was his barrel rate, as it remained at a constant 6.2% rate.
In Cease’s defense, he had no defense behind him and had a .330 batting average on balls in play. The White Sox had -59 defensive runs saved and -17 outs above average. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks were one of the best defensive teams in all of baseball. They had +46 DRS and +31 OAA. The former ranked as the 4th best mark among all 30 teams, while the latter was the 2nd most.
But one of the most important things Cease brings to any rotation is stability. He has made 97 starts over the last three years, the most by any other starter. Gerrit Cole has the second most at 96 games started. You know you’re going to get 32-33 outings from Cease.
Cease is under contract for two more years. Right now would be the time to see what the White Sox want for the former Cy Young contender, as the D-Backs would be buying low on him. Even if Cease can’t replicate his Cy Young season, I would easily take his 2021 year when he had a 3.91 ERA, 3.41 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP. A 3.80-3.90 ERA in 33 starts is still very valuable.
Eloy Jimenez
The Diamondbacks do not have a good answer right now at designated hitter. MLB.com doesn’t list a single player as the Diamondbacks’ DH, ESPN has Jace Peterson as the team’s best DH option, and FanGraphs has Dominic Fletcher in their projected D-Backs line-up. Needless to say, it’s not a pretty picture. But one of the top trade candidates who could get moved this off-season is DH/LF Eloy Jimenez.
Eloy Jimenez didn’t hit poorly last year; he just didn’t live up to the expectations set upon him, sort of like Cease (and the rest of the White Sox). In 489 plate appearances, Jimenez batted .272/.317/.441 with a 105 wRC+. Jimenez had 18 home runs, only struck out 19% of the time, and had a .325 wOBA. Jimenez has never been one to walk much and only had a 6.1% walk rate.
Again, these numbers aren’t bad by any means. But a look at what he did in about a half-season in 2022 and they pale in comparison. In 327 PAs, Jimenez batted .295/.358/.500 with a .370 wOBA, and 143 wRC+. He was nearly 40% better of a hitter in 2022 than he was in 2023. He also had a 123 wRC+ from his strong 2019 rookie season up through ‘23.
When Jimenez is healthy, he can be one of the best hitters in baseball. The key note here is ‘when he’s healthy.’ Jimenez has topped out at 122 games in any season thus far, and that was his rookie campaign. His ‘19 rookie season is still the only year he has come to the plate at least 500 times.
Jimenez has steadily seen his work in the outfield decrease over time. The amount of injuries he has had and a lack of defensive prowess to start with have led him to being a DH-only candidate. Throughout his career, he has -18 defensive runs saved and -19 outs above average. Last season, he only saw 109.2 innings in right field, the first time he has ever played in right and played 104 games at DH.
Jimenez has only one more year of guaranteed control left. Next season, he will make $13,833,334 but then has a team option valued at $16.5 million with a $3 million buyout. If that is picked up, then he has a second team option for 2026 at $18.5 million with another $3 million buyout. Of course, if Jimenez can hit like we know he can, he could be a steal at that price. The buyouts do give whichever team who acquires him some flexibility. While Jimenez may not bring the durability that either Randy or Cease bring, he is relatively affordable for one year, and if he can stay healthy and have a good season, you can bring him back for a decent price.