Potential Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher free agent fits

The Arizona Diamondbacks are expected to have a busy offseason after coming up short in its first World Series appearance since 2001. The to-do list has lots of items on it, but arguably the most pressing is starting pitching. The team began the season with somewhat of a surplus at the position, holding veterans Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Zach Davies and Madison Bumgarner to blend in with youngsters Tommy Henry, Drey Jameson, Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson. The season ended with a glaring need for starting pitcher following a series of DFA's and injuries. Here are a few free-agent names who could be a good fit for Arizona.

RHP Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito suited up for three teams last season, but he could suit up for another one soon. The 29-year-old pitched well enough in his eighth season with the White Sox to get dealt to the Los Angeles Angels leading up to the July 31st trade deadline, though his time on the west coast was brief. Just over a month in, the Angels DFA'd Giolito once they fell out of postseason contention. Dbacks’ General Manager, Mike Hazen, reportedly put in a claim for him, per John Gambardo of Arizona Sports, but the Cleveland Guardians picked him up to close out the regular season with their priority on the waiver wire. Giolito couldn’t carry his solid first-half performance with Chicago into the second half with either team. In six starts a piece with LA and Cleveland, Giolito pitched to a 2-10 record and a league-worst in standard stats like ERA (7.13) and WHIP (1.58) among 51 qualified starters. A lot went wrong for Giolito in the second-half, especially his home run total. In a dozen starts post-July, batters went yard 29 times off Giolito in just 66 innings for a whopping 2.98 HR/9, by far the highest rate in MLB during that two-month stretch.

Keeping the ball in the field was not a new struggle for Giolito. In his major-league career, Giolito has averaged 1.47 HR/9, which ranks second-highest among the 200-plus starters this century who’ve thrown nearly as many innings (1,000). Coming to Arizona might help crack down on the homers with Chase Field being one of the least homer-friendly parks in baseball in recent years, ranking 27th of the 30 MLB stadiums, per Statcast’s 3-year rolling park factors, while Guaranteed Rate Field, where Giolito spent most of his career with the White Sox, ranks slightly above-average as the 14th-most home run-friendly ballpark. Pitching in an environment that minimizes his achilles heel could go a long way for Giolito. He is coming off consecutive disappointing seasons, pitching to a 4.89 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 66 starts, but the California native has shown upside in the past. From 2019 through the 2021 season, Giolito held hitters to a weak .208/.275/.375 slashline, while also striking out 30.9% of the batters he faced.  

While his performance has wavered throughout his MLB career, Giolito’s health has remained consistent. Since 2018 - his first full year in the bigs - Giolito has tallied the eighth-most innings pitched in baseball. Adding a durable starter to the mix is a must for the Dbacks, who dealt with their fair share of pitching injuries last season - Zac Gallen was the only Diamondbacks starter to meet all his starts last season.  A move to Arizona could do the trick for Giolito - and for the Dbacks.

RHP Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson's stats have never jumped off the page - he holds a career 4.54 ERA, 2.31 strikeout-to-walk ratio and .267 batting average against, pretty much in line with his year-to-year performance. Despite the middling overall numbers, he's been one of the game's most reliable backend starter in his 11-year MLB career. Even at 36, Gibson proved he can still be an innings-eater last season, leading the Orioles pitching staff in innings pitched (192) on route to the club's first playoff appearance in the last seven seasons. Gibson would likely be a short-term target for the club, though he would come fairly cheap - the largest deal he's commanded in free agency was a 3-year, $28 million deal with the Texas Rangers four winters ago.

Gibson has always been a heavy groundball pitcher, posting a 50.7% GB rate in his career. Last season, though, the Orioles infield defense ranked 26th per Outs Above Average. The season before, Gibson played for the Phillies, whose infield defense ranked 25th in baseball. The Diamondbacks defense ranked fourth last year, with skilled defenders like Christian Walker and Geraldo Perdomo on the dirt. Gibson is a low-risk option who could end up in the desert.