The Arizona Diamondbacks have arguably been the biggest surprise in Major League Baseball this season, leading the NL West heading into Tuesday’s matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee has lost the lead in the NL Central to the Cincinnati Reds, who have won nine straight games to take a half-game lead in the division.
The D-Backs are facing a similar threat in the NL West, as the San Francisco Giants have won eight in a row to pull within 3.5 games in the division, surpassing the Los Angeles Dodgers for second place.
Arizona would love to gain a little cushion by winning on Tuesday, but it won’t have its best arm on the mound to start.
Youngster Ryne Nelson (3-4, 5.30 ERA) gets the ball in this matchup against Colin Rea (3-4, 4.71 ERA).
Just based on those ERA numbers, it looks like we could be in for a high-scoring game. Here’s how the odds shake out and my best bet for Tuesday’s contest:
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers odds, run line and total
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers prediction and pick
Arizona’s offense has been humming this season, ranking fifth in MLB in runs scored and fifth in OPS.
The same can’t be said for Milwaukee (26th in both categories), but I do think this game is set up nicely to be high scoring.
Nelson could eventually become a key part of Arizona’s rotation, but he’s been fairly bad this season with a 1.54 WHIP and 5.30 ERA. The young righty has a Statcast profile that will scare bettors away more often than not.
Nelson has allowed at least three runs in 10 of his 14 starts, giving the Brewers a good chance to contribute here to push this total over nine runs.
On the D-Backs’ side, the team should be able to get to Rea, who has allowed three or more runs in seven of his 12 outings, with a Fielding Independent Pitching of 4.82.
Plsu, both of these bullpens have ERAs that are over 4.00, so there is no guarantee that the scoring stops once the starters exit.
Let’s root for runs in Milwaukee.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.