Rockies vs. Diamondbacks prediction and odds for Monday, Sept. 4 (Arizona fighting for wild card)

The Diamondbacks are tied for the final NL Wild Card spot with the Giants and Marlins after losing two of three to the Orioles over the weekend.
Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker (53)
Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker (53) / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

There’s now a three-way tie for the final National League Wild Card spot and the 70-67 Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the three. They dropped two of three games over the weekend and if they want to end up in the postseason, they’ll need to handle their business with three games against the 50-86 Colorado Rockies. 

The Rockies will send Peter Lambert to the mound in Arizona today. Lambert is 3-5 with a 4.95 ERA in 23 games. The Diamondbacks will counter with 10-6 Merrill Kelly who has a 3.31 ERA in 24 starts. 

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Rockies vs. Diamondbacks odds, run line and total

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks prediction and pick

Last time out, Merrill Kelly struggled quite a bit against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Now, this Colorado lineup isn’t quite as good as the one that LA boasts, but Kelly could have another rough start today. Kelly has a 3.93 FIP and a 4.21 xERA which is actually below average for pitchers in the MLB. His .250 expected batting average is 38th percentile. 

Kelly is going to have some regression to finish the season with his ERA nearly a run lower than the more predictive stats like xERA and FIP. Over the last 30 days the Rockies have been decent enough on offense scoring 123 runs, the 14th most in baseball with a .680 OPS.

In August, Nolan Jones was a strong contributor with an .890 OPS, four homers and 17 RBI. 

The Diamondbacks have a 4.68 team ERA of that same stretch which is 21st, but still eight spots higher than the Rockies who are 29th with an ERA of 6.00. Sure, the elevation inflates those stats somewhat, but not by that much. 

I trust a lot of the bats in Arizona, but Christian Walker particularly is hot. He is hitting .313 with two homers over the past week. I’ll back Walker and the Snakes out in the desert. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change