Three breakouts that are key to the Arizona Diamondbacks' success in 2024

Jordan Lawlar

Jordan Lawlar was the Diamondbacks’ first-round pick in 2021 and made his Major League debut last year. It wasn’t very pretty, as he only had four hits and struck out 11 times in 34 plate appearances. It was a small sample size, so take it with a grain of salt. A ton of great players had not-so-good September debuts. Plus, the improvements he made in the minor leagues this year were extremely promising.

Lawlar batted .278/.378/.496 through 490 plate appearances. He hit 20 home runs with a .218 isolated slugging percentage while stealing 36 bases in 41 attempts. Lawlar ended his year with a .389 wOBA and 126 wRC+, however none of this is the best part of his year. He showed a lot of improvements with his plate discipline. In 2022, he had a quality 12.4% walk rate but struck out about a quarter of the time with a 25.1% K-rate. That led to some questions about his hit tool in the long run. However, he cut his K% down to 20.1% while keeping a solid 11.4% walk rate.

Do keep in mind, however, that 80 of his plate appearances came at the Pacific Coast League, where they used the automated ball/strike zone. Strikeouts went down, and walks went up, so don’t take his K% drop from 21.4% at Amarilloto to 15% at Reno all that seriously. He wasn’t the only player who saw a massive dip in K% last year once he reached Triple-A.

Lawlar is a great defensive shortstop. His arm is more than good enough to play on the right side of the infield and make the deep throws from shortstop. However, his arm accuracy is fringe-average, but it shouldn’t be considered a liability. Lawlar is one of the fastest runners in baseball and his 30 feet/second sprint speed ranked top ten in his brief MLB call-up.

If Lawlar plays anything like his potential, then he could win Rookie of the Year. The Diamondbacks didn’t have a ROY winner in their franchise history until Corbin Carroll won it last year. They have a chance to have two in back-to-back seasons if Lawlar takes over shortstop full-time. You’re talking about a 30/30 candidate with Gold Glove defense up the middle.

Andrew Saalfrank

Andrew Saalfrank could come up big as the team’s go-to high-leverage left-handed reliever in 2024. Saalfrank made a good first impression in 2023, pitching 10.1 scoreless innings. He only struck out six and walked four, but his numbers between Triple-A and Double-A are extremely promising.

Saalfrank pitched 64 innings between Amarillo and Reno, working to a 2.53 ERA, 3.00 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP. The Southpaw reliever held opponents to a batting average below the Mendoza line at .195 while striking them out over a third of the time with a 34.6% K-rate. But walks were an issue. He handed out a free pass to 13.4% of the opponents he faced. On the plus side, he also kept an extremely low 0.28 HR/9. With a 62.8% GB%, he had the 7th highest ground ball rate among any minor league arm who tossed at least 60 innings.

It’s not as if this production mostly came at Double-A, either. He pitched 30.2 innings at Triple-A Reno, where he had a sub-2.50 ERA, held opponents to a .195 average, and struck out 37.5% of the batters he faced. That’s not the largest sample size, but it’s not an insignificant amount of innings for a relief pitcher. On top of that, it was in the Pacific Coast League, where the average ERA was 5.70, and the average triple-slash was .272/.369/.453.

In Saalfrank’s brief MLB call-up, he had a ground ball rate of over 70%, as well as an exit velocity of just 86.7 MPH. He allowed a batted ball 31 times, none of which were a barrel, per Statcast. Saalfrank throws two pitches: a sinker and a curveball. He only averages out around 91-94 MPH with his sinker but throws it with above-average vertical drop. His curveball, a low-to-mid-80s offering, induced a whiff rate of 35.7% in the Majors.

Saalfrank may not be your typical overpowering relief arm, but he keeps hard contact to a minimum, induces ground balls, and can get some swings and misses. Saalfrank did outstanding in the PCL, and even though typically, I wouldn’t say I like putting too much weight in minor league statistics in such an extreme setting, he was, far and away, one of the best pitchers in that league. He could be a massive cog in the bullpen in 2024.

Ryne Nelson

Ryne Nelson’s rookie season was not one to write home about. However, if the Diamondbacks do not sign or trade for another starting pitcher before the start of Spring Training, he will enter looking to compete for the final spot in the rotation. I think he has an equally as good of chance as Tommy Henry to earn the final spot, and if Nelson takes it, the D-Backs will need him to do good in ‘24.

Nelson pitched 144 innings in 27 starts and 29 total appearances. He had a poor 5.31 ERA, 5.07 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP throughout the frames he pitched. Nelson had a lowly 15.5% strikeout rate and 1.40 HR/9. Nelson was below the tenth percentile of both exit velocity and barrel rate and clocked in the 22nd percentile of hard-hit rate. Of the few positives from his first extended look in the bigs, he had a quality 7.4% walk rate.

But there’s definitely some potential for him to break out. His fastball had above-average velocity and carry through the zone. His change-up induced a whiff rate of 31.4% while keeping batters to a sub-.300 wOBA. His slider also held opponents to a wOBA below .300. In terms of Stuff+, Nelson was slightly above average at 101.

Keep in mind that this was only Nelson’s first big league season. Nelson commands his stuff well, and his overall ability is there. He has the tools; now, he just needs to put them together. If he breaks out next year, the Diamondbacks could have the most formidable rotation in baseball. Imagine if they had five starters with 20+ games started and an ERA under 4.00.