The Arizona Diamondbacks will be looking to bounce back and make the playoffs again in 2025. This comes just one year after missing out via tiebreaker to both the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets at the end of the season despite winning 89 games. Given the situation of how the past two seasons have gone, it's safe to say that 2025 is playoffs or bust for Arizona.
For the second straight season, the Diamondbacks are looking at a record payroll figure. That comes on the heels of a World Series run just two seasons ago. They're almost certain to beat the $177.0 million figure from 2024, per Cot's Contracts, regardless of how much they save in a hypothetical Jordan Montgomery trade.
They upped the ante this offseason by signing Corbin Burnes to improve the top half of their rotation. Starting pitching was an Achilles heel for the Diamondbacks in 2024, as injuries and subpar performances pushed them out of position for a playoff spot at the end of the season. Burnes, along with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly gives Arizona a strong 1-2-3 punch at the top of their rotation.
The likelihood that they will have a similar performance from their rotation, whether that's because of injuries or not, is pretty low. Every pitcher in the rotation certainly should offer more, either in innings or run-prevention, which should help their chances. Arizona ranked 27th in rotation ERA, at 4.79. At the same time, they ranked 13th in FIP (4.01), which takes into account only strikeouts, walks, and home runs. If the pitching is closer to their FIP mark, then they should be more than in a good spot to compete for a Wild Card spot.
While they are going to lose some offense with the departures of Christian Walker and Joc Pederson in free agency, they still have much of their core there. MVP finalist Ketel Marte is still anchoring the top of their lineup, along with 2023 Rookie of the Year winner Corbin Carroll. Trade acquisition Josh Naylor is expected to pick up the slack on the power department, as they'll be banking on a repeat of the 31 home runs he hit in 2024.
The bullpen is one area that has yet to be addressed this offseason, although not for lack of effort. While they were rebuffed on Ryan Helsley in trade negotiations, they've still got options. They could turn to Kyle Finnegan or David Robertson in free agency, or swing a trade for someone like Pete Fairbanks. Given not only the high trade cost but also his injury history, free agency seems like the better route for Arizona.
Addressing the bullpen is important, as it proved to be a fatal flaw in the 2024 season. From the month of July onward, there was no stability at the closer role and it filtered to the rest of the bullpen. They have some internal candidates they could try out at the closer role between Justin Martinez, Kevin Ginkel, and A.J. Puk, but the reality is none of three are ideal. Ginkel would make the most sense with the current configuration, given his past experience in the role waiting for Paul Sewald to come off the injured list last season.
The question surrounding the Diamondbacks will be the health of their lineup and starting rotation. On paper, they have the horses to make that type of run again. However, if they fail to make the postseason with this roster, then both general manager Mike Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo's proverbial seats should start to warm up a little.