Brandon Pfaadt came into his seventh start of the 2025 season looking like one of the biggest breakout stories. The 26-year-old right-hander was riding an April showing that posted a perfect 5-0 record with a 2.43 ERA and just five walks over 29 2/3 innings — a stat line that finally seemed to match the optimism the Arizona Diamondbacks had long held for him.
Baseball can humble even its hottest pitchers, and the Philadelphia Phillies brought Pfaadt crashing back to earth with a six-run barrage that chased him out of the game after just 4 2/3 innings. It was a harsh reminder that while Pfaadt’s results had improved, the underlying metrics told a story hard to ignore.
Entering 2025, Pfaadt was still more promise than polish. His rookie year in 2023 was a rollercoaster, ending with a 5.72 ERA over 96 innings. He followed it up with an improved 2024 campaign, throwing 181 2/3 innings and leading the team in starts, innings pitched, and strikeouts. He finished with an ERA down to 4.71, but advanced metrics like fielding independent pitching (3.61) and xERA (3.78) hinted at untapped upside. That made his early 2025 dominance all the more exciting — until the Phillies exposed the deeper concerns.
Brandon Pfaadt's collapse was brewing under the surface all along
The hard contact rates are particularly alarming. So far this season, 45.5 percent of batted balls against Pfaadt have come off the bat at 95 mph or harder — the worst mark of his career. Opponents are hitting .272 off him, but the expected batting average (xBA) sits at an ugly .306, placing him in the bottom 7 percent of all pitchers in MLB. And when hitters make contact? His expected weighted on-base average on contact (xwOBAcon) is a brutal .445, suggesting when hitters do connect, they’re squaring him up with authority.
Despite his improved 3.79 ERA, Pfaadt’s expected ERA (xERA) has ballooned to 5.31, nearly identical to the 5.05 mark he carried across his first two seasons. His strikeout rate has also dipped to a career-low 20.7%, nearly two full points below league average, reflecting a shift from overpowering hitters to relying more heavily on contact management — a risky game when you’re consistently allowing loud contact.
Some of this regression can be traced to the schedule. Four of the seven teams he’s faced (Orioles, Marlins, Rays, and Braves) all rank in the bottom half of MLB in offensive production. The three that tagged him (Cubs, Nationals, and now the Phillies) are all top-half offenses, with Philadelphia in particular capitalizing on Pfaadt’s mistakes with ease. It’s fair to ask whether his strong April was more of a soft-landing illusion than a true step forward.
Still, not all hope is lost. Pfaadt remains one of the best strike throwers in the league, walking just 4.1 percent of batters this year. He attacks the zone relentlessly and isn’t afraid to challenge hitters. But that aggression comes with a cost — if he can’t miss more bats or better deceive hitters, that contact will keep doing damage.
There are signs he’s trying to evolve. His curveball usage has more than doubled from 5.3 percent in 2024 to 11.9 this season, generating a noticeable increase in swing-and-miss. But it’s also been his most volatile weapon. The pitch has accounted for more home runs than any other in his arsenal. There’s refinement to be made, particularly in sequencing and execution, if that pitch is going to be a true weapon rather than a liability.
The Phillies may have delivered the first blow, but the real test comes next. Pfaadt’s next assignment is a marquee divisional clash with the Los Angeles Dodgers — owners of the third-most runs scored in MLB and sitting atop the NL West standings. If the Diamondbacks hope to keep pace in the division, they’ll need Pfaadt to course-correct quickly.
The flashes of potential are still there. But so is the inconsistency. The road to becoming a frontline starter is rarely linear and for Brandon Pfaadt, it’s just starting to get a little bumpy.