Arizona Diamondbacks: 5 Centerfield Trade Targets

The Arizona Diamondbacks are viable at every position – except centerfield. The in-house options int the desert pale in comparison to these 5 trade targets.

The Arizona Diamondbacks signed New York Met non-tender Wilmer Flores this week, leading to the widespread presumption that Ketel Marte‘s transition to centerfield is complete. Given that his spring transition has yet to begin, that may be premature. Trade targets abound capable of augmenting the offense, if indeed they intend to compete.

Flores adds to manager Torey Lovullo’s modern stable of players – but the work of roster building isn’t done yet. In the National League, where double switches and pinch hitting opportunities strain a bench unit with regularity, the Dbacks are a center fielder away from fielding a well-rounded 13-man position player group.

At present, the starting lineup features Carson Kelly behind the plate, Jake Lamb at first, Flores at second, Nick Ahmed at short, Eduardo Escobar at third, with an outfield of David Peralta, Ketel Marte and Steven Souza Jr.

The bench unit is comprised of catcher Alex Avila, outfielders Socrates Brito and Jarrod Dyson, and likely a couple of infielders, as of yet undetermined. Christian Walker might make the cut as a power option off the bench, but with Flores capable of spelling Lamb at first against lefties, the Dbacks aren’t locked into carrying a backup 1B.

They could carry a third catcher in John Ryan Murphy, but that’s not a great use of a roster spot unless they love Avila as the first pinch-hitter off the bench. Avila will see his fair share of playing time as part of the catching timeshare, but when he’s not starting his spot is at the end of the bench.

Offseason acquisitions Abraham Almonte, Rob Refsnyder, Matt Szczur, Tim Locastro and Kelby Tomlinson will compete for those last two spots, as will a host of younger players who could push to make the team: Kevin Cron, Domingo Leyba, Ildemaro Vargas, Yasmany Tomas.

Most of those guys are either primarily outfielders, corner types, or low-ceiling organizational filler. They’re fine as backups, but National League teams have moved away from the bench unit as insurance/pinch-hitters.

Rosters usage is more fluid in this day and age, with each position player on the roster counted on to be a significant contributor. The 2018 Diamondbacks, for instance, saw 15 position players get more than 200 at-bats. That means that even if none of the above listed players make the Opening Day roster, one or two of them will still have a chance to become a key member of the 2019 Arizona Diamondbacks.

Which is exactly why Flores profiles better as the first infield bat off the bench than as the everyday second baseman. Penciling in Marte at second doesn’t preclude a move to centerfield, nor does it mean Flores isn’t going to be a “regular” second baseman. Flores has received between 250-500 at-bats in every season for the last five, but the closest he’s come to being a standstill starter was the 96 starts he made at shortstop as a 23-year-old in 2015. He’s a regular, if not an everyday player.

The Diamondbacks, it’s safe to say, are not the clear frontrunners in the NL West. Leveraging the individual talents of this roster might drive them to contention, but only if they avoid overextension. There’s no reason to push Marte/Flores beyond what makes them above-average by moving further up the defensive hierarchy and hurting the overall team defense; rather, they should exploit their versatility by using it on a game-to-game basis.

If Flores spells Marte/Lamb/Ahmed/Escobar around the infield, he still gets 4-5 starts per week, with even more regular playing time if someone hits the DL. There’s no reason to guarantee a recently-non-tendered defensive liability more than that – at least not before he proves himself an indispensable offensive asset.

Making Flores the first bat off the bench, however, leaves Jarrod Dyson atop the depth chart in centerfield. Consider the following stats for Dyson: his career high in at-bats is 346, in home runs it’s 5, and if you prefer rate metrics, he has a career high 95 wRC+. He’s not an everyday player.

On the plus side, he has recorded seven straight years of double digit stolen bases, 220 total for his career, and both DRS and UZR peg him as a tremendous defender across all three outfield positions. Giving Dyson 600 at-bats in center field would be an interesting experiment in the present day value of speed and defense, but if Billy Hamilton didn’t effectively answer that question I’m not sure what a full year of Dyson in center can prove.

Dyson has been a regular major league contributor for seven seasons running, and yet, his stolen base total dwarfs his RBI total, 220 to 143. While RBIs are contextually dependent, that also makes them contextually relevant, and in seven years Dyson has been utilized in essentially the same context.

Make no mistake, this is a compliment: Dyson is the perfect fourth outfielder. Not a good fourth outfielder, or a solid one: he’s perfect. Why mess with perfection? On a one-year, $3.75MM contract, he ought to be attractive to a contender come the deadline.

With Dyson best-suited, like Flores, in a regular but not everyday role, the roster is still a player away from achieving balance.

It would be fun to see Brito get a chance to play everyday until June, to really give him a chance to knock off the rust and prove he can hit major league pitching the way he crushes in Triple A.

He’s out of options, so he’ll make the roster, and at 26, 2019 may be a now-or-never year for Brito. Despite making his major-league debut at 22 and remaining in the outfield conversation relatively consistently since then, he has yet to cross the 100 AB threshold in a single season. If this isn’t the year, it might never happen.

Still, giving Brito the job out of Spring Training all but admits to the public that the Diamondbacks are okay taking a backseat, contention-wise, this season, and while it can be argued that such a strategy is actually definitely absolutely what they should do, nothing the brass has said has indicated they agree.

With the starting staff more-or-less locked into Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, Luke Weaver and Merrill Kelly, the Diamondbacks have but one major swing left to take this winter: acquire a starting center fielder.

Assuming that incumbent A.J. Pollock has played his last home game in Chase Field, here are some of the top targets the Arizona Diamondbacks should focus on before Spring Training.

Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox

The Diamondbacks had rumored interested in Jackie Bradley Jr earlier this winter. Then they were rumored not to be interested. Regardless, he’s a great fit. Regardless of that, he’s not likely available. Because stubbornness – let’s explore it anyway!

The Diamondbacks are theoretically uninterested because he doesn’t fit their timeline, which is interesting given they’re “not rebuilding.” He’ll be 29 in April, projected to earn $7.9MM in 2019, with one more season of arb eligibility after that. Given that Goldschmidt was only making $14.5MM before he was shipped out of town, JBJ comes a little pricey, but there’s reason to like him too.

Solid defense up the middle is the greatest gift a team can give a young rotation, and with Nick Ahmed and Carson Kelly, the Dbacks are off to a good start. Still, getting an all-world defender like Bradley in center could do for a young pitcher what a good offensive line does for a young quarterback: protect him.

Bradley’s not an exceptionally physically gifted player, but his defense maintains a high floor of productivity even when his bat slips. As he enters his thirties, his route reading ability should compensate for waning athleticism.

Offensively, JBJ is an enigma. He made his ML debut in 2013 and completely face-planted in a 37-game sample. The next season Bradley got a second chance to prove himself, but hit only .198/.265/.266 across 423 plate appearances.

And yet, that high floor we mentioned? Tremendous defensive numbers (17.1 UZR/150) pulled his overall value up to a total 0.2 fWAR for the season. Not good, mind you, but that’s the floor.

He went back to Triple A in 2015 and crushed, earning another call-up where he continued to rake, finishing with a 123 wRC+ in 71 games. The next season, 2016, is the high-water mark for JBJ: .267/.349/.486 in 156 games with his usual stellar defense, earning an All-Star-caliber total of 5.2 fWAR.

But a return to that level is not over-likely. His batting average and OBP dropped the next two seasons while his isolated power has cratered. He’s streaky, for sure, but he’s not likely to bounce back to the 118 wRC+ level from 2016.

Still, JBJ roaming center could be a difference maker. Unfortunately for Arizona, that’s exactly why he’s a perfect fit on a loaded Boston roster. Boston’s catchers, like Bradley, are below average offensively, but these defensive stalwarts at key positions are perfect compliments to a lineup that doesn’t need much help from the bottom of the order.

The Arizona Diamondbacks could try to pry JBJ from Boston, but he’s simply not as valuable to the Dbacks as he is to his current employer in Boston.

2019 will be JBJ’s age-29 season, and he’s not due for free agency until after 2020. By then, the Diamondbacks might actually have enough offense to make Bradley’s defensive value a good fit. As much as the Diamondbacks young staff could use a vacuum like JBJ in center, he’s probably a better target for free agency before the 2021 season.

Kevin Pillar, Toronto Blue Jays

Kevin Pillar was built in the same lab as Bradley Jr. He has an undeniable ability to snag fly balls beyond the reach of most centerfielders, and his ability to do so is the singular reason he is a major league ballplayer.

What’s worrisome: defensive metrics suggest that ability is fading. Pillar peaked in 2016 with 21 DRS and 12.2 UZR, but that season was bookended by two other pretty great defensive years, 14 DRS, 6.7 UZR in 2015 and 15 DRS, 5.4 UZR in 2017.

Last season, his age-30 season, Pillar fell off to -2 DRS and 2.3 UZR. As his defense slipped, however, his offense improved enough to hold Pillar steady as a 2.0 fWAR player for the past two seasons, 2.4 fWAR the year before that (2016). Steamer projects more of the same in 2019, a 2.1 fWAR season. That’s consistency.

He’s more-or-less the definition of a second-division starter, meaning definitely a starter on a non-contender, but on a playoff team he might not get everyday at-bats. In Pillar’s ideal situation, he fills JBJ’s role, hitting eight or ninth behind a stacked offense while not being asked to do too much with the stick.

In the stacked AL East, the Blue Jays have no illusions about contenting in 2019. Plus, with some of their top prospects on the verge of making their ML debut, their organization is focused on augmenting the core around those guys. Pillar doesn’t fit that timetable.

He’s reasonably priced, set to make $5.8MM this season, and controllable for 2020. Because of the extra year of control, Toronto will want a young asset or two to give him up, and there’s reason to question whether it’s prudent for the Diamondbacks to give up prospects of any caliber at this juncture.

Still, if the prospect price isn’t too high, Pillar would help round out a balanced lineup. If Toronto asks for the farm, the Diamondbacks should look elsewhere.

Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs

There’s no reason to believe the Cubs are willing to deal Ian Happ, and there’s even less reason to believe the Diamondbacks have the pieces to get him. Still, in terms of building a balanced, flexible lineup, Happ delivers power from both sides of the plate, and he can play anywhere on the diamond except for short, catcher, and pitcher.

Still, a host of questions persist: on the Cubs side, if they decided to move him, would they want ML pieces or prospects? On the Diamondbacks side, should they want Happ? Do they even have the pieces to get him?

The Cubs certainly have a need to bolster their farm, but there’s no reason to think they’d be willing to sacrifice an ML piece to do so. They’d need to get something back that helps them return to the playoffs in ’19.

The Diamondbacks have a few near-ML pitching prospects they could deal without depleting the reserves too much. Taylor Clarke, Yoan Lopez and Taylor Widener won’t knock your socks off, but they all have upside and figure to start the season in Triple A. The Cubs have an older rotation that could lose Jon Lester, Cole Hamels or Kyle Hendricks to free agency in the next two seasons, and they’ve struggled to develop pitching.

And yet, this feels like a pipe dream. Happ right now is an important offensive cog to the Cubs’ three-headed machine in center, also featuring defensive studs Albert Almora and Jason Heyward.

Almora would also be a reasonable target as a player who profiles similarly to Pillar, but he’s a high-character early draft pick whom the Cubs have notoriously valued highly. Happ, for whatever reason, has been floated more frequently as a trade candidate despite largely fitting the same profile.

Defensively, he grades out as slightly below average, but his ability to play all over the field somewhat mitigates the low marks, and given that he’s only 24-years-old, there’s some room to grow as far as route reading. He is a suitable spiritual replacement for Pollock as well, as his all-out style is redolent of Pollock’s own crash-test-dummy personality in center.

Offensively, Happ is an all-or-nothing slugger, still generating between 6-14% more offense than your average hitter through his first two seasons in Chicago. Overall, there’s more fluctuation in his numbers across the board than is ideal, so the jury is still out on exactly what type of major league hitter he will be.

His isolated power fell off a bit last season as his K rate soared to over 36%. At the same time, he walked at a very solid 15.2% BB%, so maybe the young Cubs outfielder is still refining his approach.

Also of note, he led off on Opening Day for the Cubs last season, taking over the spot held effectively by Dexter Fowler during their 2016 World Series run. Fowler was a walk-fiend in his time with the Cubs, seeing a lot of pitches and helping an otherwise free-swinging roster get an early look at a starter’s arsenal while building those pitch counts and making it easier to get into the opposing pen.

Happ’s rising BB% hints at an intentionality on either Happ’s, the Cubs part, or both to develop him as Fowler’s natural successor. He wasn’t quite ready last year, but that doesn’t mean they’ve given up.

He has yet to reach arbitration, which makes him a good fit in terms of timeline for the Diamondbacks. Even if he never does improve defensively, he could succeed Peralta or Souza Jr. in the corner.

Frankly, Happ would be a great fit in Arizona, but I just don’t think he’s available. He’s a year or two behind the rest of the Cubs’ core, which means he’s cheap for that much longer. That’s valuable for this current iteration of the Cubs, so unless Arizona offsets those concerns with 2-3 legitimately promising ML prospects capable of contributing soon, I just don’t see Chicago budging.

Bradley Zimmer, Cleveland Indians

It’s hard enough for young players to establish themselves in the big leagues, let alone in the midst of a playoff push, let alone while coming back from an injury – but that’s exactly the situation Bradley Zimmer finds himself in with the 2019 Cleveland Indians.

Pilfering young hopefuls from contenders doesn’t seem like the easiest way to go about roster building for an Arizona team more likely than not to take a step back this season, but Zimmer is a strong defender who might excel outside of the spotlight of contention that he’ll face in Cleveland. Granted, the Indians need outfielders, but the Diamondbacks have the pieces to get him, if they’re willing to move Souza or Peralta. Unfortunately, Hazen doesn’t seem ready to go down that path yet.

Zimmer is an interesting change-of-scenery candidate – perfect for a rebuilding club as he likely won’t be healthy by the start of the season. But he’s also the least established major leaguer on this list. Off to a slow start in 2018, injuries ended his season after only 34 games.

The year before he played in 101 games, slashing .241/.307/.385, just an 80 wRC+. His power has yet to show up in-game (.133 ISO), he doesn’t walk enough (7.4 BB%), and he strikes out even more often than Happ (32.1%). Intrigued?

I am! Here’s why: Zimmer has all the physical tools to develop into a professional star. He has a cannon of an arm – born out in his defensive metrics from ’17 – and he cover more ground in the outfield than you’d expect for a guy 6’5″, 200 lbs. The power usually associated with a frame like his hasn’t yet materialized, but it may yet, and he has speed to compensate.

He stole 18 bases while only caught once in 2017, and his defensive metrics were strong too (4 DRS, 4.9 UZR in 2017). His range scores weren’t great, and there is a version of Zimmer’s future where he ends up in right, but he’d be an above-average defender there for sure. The question, still, is whether he hits enough to earn his keep.

He’s 26-years-old, so not the youngest person on this list, but there’s still plenty of upside. If he hasn’t yet, Dbacks GM Mike Hazen should no doubt see what kind of return they could get for David Peralta or Steven Souza Jr., neither of whom are spring chickens.

The Indians, however, with a relatively clear path to the playoffs in the AL Central, may be content to ride out the wave with Zimmer when he returns from injury. His defense will help, and if he takes longer than expected to refine his approach at the plate, they could be patient.

If the Dbacks and Indians both start slow, it would not be surprising in the least to see a deal materialize surrounding Peralta/Zimmer in July.